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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/16)

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For the season, my NBA Best Bets have gone 36-20-1 ATS. Let’s check out my favorites for today!

Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

(All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings

It’s the second night of a road back-to-back for the Kings, and after a hard-fought win in Chicago, we’re less than inclined to back them in Brooklyn. Sacramento is a very good team, but their stature in the West is misleading. Their record is exceptional, but the team is clearly a tier below the truly elite in the NBA, as exhibited by their Pts/Poss differential and Adjusted Net Rating.

But this bet is really about Brooklyn. The new-look Nets have played much better of late, rating sixth in the NBA in Net Rating over these past two weeks. The team is fully healthy, sans Ben Simmons (who cares), and has a significant rest advantage over the Kings. We don’t often bet based on the situation, but it’s a tall task for Sacramento to waltz into Brooklyn (after consecutive travel days across the country) and come out with a win.

Bet: Nets -2 (-110)

Toronto Raptors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

These two teams’ defenses rank tied for 11th in Defensive Pts/Poss since the All-Star Break, and neither offense rates in the top half of the NBA over that same span. If this game tends to the Pace of the Toronto Raptors (25th in the NBA), this bet should be a layup.

The concern is the Thunder. Oklahoma City is one of the fastest-playing teams in the NBA, but the high pace of play doesn’t necessarily equate to good offense. The Thunder rate a surprising 16th in Offensive Pts/Poss and 17th in Offensive Adjusted Net Rating on the year. It’s been their team defense that has kept them relevant, and it will be that defensive effort that will give them a chance in this game.

Additionally, both of these teams’ offenses are fueled by Points off Turnovers, rating first (Toronto) and second (OKC) in this category. However, both teams also excel at preventing such offense, as neither team (generally) turns the ball over. With such care for the ball being considered, it’s fair to expect a slower-paced game played at the Raptors’ tempo. And, with the lack of offense being generated via fast break points (also crucial for both teams), it’s more likely than not that this game falls short of the 230.5 threshold.

The Thunder have gone Under in three straight games, and we like it to get to four here. This is an awkward matchup for both teams, and it would take some exceptional half-court offense to jeopardize this play.

Bet: Under 230.5 (-110)

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