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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/2)

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For the season, my NBA best bets have gone 30-18-1 ATS

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Thursday’s Best NBA Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors’ home court advantage is not at all overblown, and it’s always a good time to bet on Golden State as a home underdog. The Warriors are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season in such a spot (league best), covering by an average margin of fourteen points, and winning each game outright. On the whole, the Warriors are 25-7 SU and 20-11-1 ATS at home– both among the tops in the league.

Perhaps more importantly, they tend to play much better at home. When playing in front of their home fans, the Warriors rate 6th in overall Net Rating. On the Road?– they rate 26th in the NBA. Such a stark contrast is shocking, but reason enough to want to back the defending champs. But, theres more:

The Clippers have been reeling since the All-Star break. The team has yet to win (or cover) since play resumed, and their defense is the chief reason why. Of all the personnel moves that Los Angeles made at the deadline, none of them helped them defensively. The only guard they have with a positive Defensive Rating is Terance Mann (barely), and his minutes have all but been conceded to the newly acquired Russell Westbrook (one of the worst defenders in the NBA).

Los Angeles’ defensive woes are especially concerning given the opponent, and the Warriors are exemplary at home. Let’s not overthink this one.

Bet: Warriors +3 (-110)

Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs

There’s some fear that this is a trap, but we can’t be scared of monsters under the bed. The Spurs are the worst team in basketball by just about every metric (Adjusted Net Rating, Net Rating, Pts/Poss, etc.), and, prior to their victory over the Jazz, had lost sixteen straight games.

Conversely, the Pacers have played well lately. Indiana has covered in each game since the All-Star break, with their lone loss being an admirable one — a 142-138 OT loss to the Celtics. The projected starting five for the Pacers (Haliburton, Nembhard, Hield, Nesmith, Turner) is more than respectable, boasting a positive Net Rating on the year, and trumping any lineup the Spurs can throw at them.

San Antonio got the better of Indiana earlier this year, but that was a long time ago, and the Spurs have firmly entrenched themselves in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes since then. Back the Pacers to cover the spread on Thursday night, as they continue to push for the last play-in spot in the Eastern Conference.

Bet: Pacers -4 (-110)

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