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NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/16)

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Here are two of my favorite bets from Thursday’s slate.

And let’s take a look at our other best bets for Thursday:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Today’s Best NBA Bets

For the season, my NBA best bets have gone 27-15-1 ATS

Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves

No team is as hot to betting the over as the Minnesota Timberwolves. Don’t bet on this streak to end Thursday night vs. the Wizards. Over their past six games (all of which the Wolves have gone over the point total), the Wolves rate 4th in Pace, 9th in Offensive Rating, and 24th on the Defensive End. Such a style of play is fertile for Over bets and a stark deviation from the norm for this Minnesota team. The sudden change of play is a crucial reason as to why the Wolves have continually gone Over the total, and it is doubtful that oddsmakers have fully accounted for their newfound style of play.

In addition, Minnesota’s injury report is encouraging for those of us betting the Over. The possible absences of both Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson would greatly hinder the team on the defensive end, as these two players of two of the Wolves’ three best defenders, and neither player grades out positively on offense (see here for 538’s player ratings).

Those skeptical of this play may point to the Wizards’ O/U record as the road team (18-12-1 to the Under), but it isn’t as though every team the Wolves have played on this streak tends to the Over themselves. Minnesota’s six-game run is a direct result of their own style of play– a style I can’t foresee them departing and one to which we anticipate the Wizards will conform to.

Bet: Over 235.5 (-110)

Los Angeles Clippers @ Phoenix Suns

It feels a lot like the wrong team is favored here. In the short term, Phoenix is not as good (on paper, see 538’s player ratings here) as they were prior to their trade for Kevin Durant– but they’re still a formidable team and capable of taking care of the Clippers on their home court. See just this past Tuesday for evidence, as Phoenix’s stars showed out in a crucial win over Sacramento. Too, note how well the Suns have performed at home this season: they’re 17-12 ATS and 20-9 SU at the Footprint Center.

The Advanced Stats suggest Phoenix to be the far better overall team as well– and although much of this data is skewed due to either rest or roster turnover, the sentiment still holds. Further, the projected starting five of the Suns (Paul, Booker, Craig, Ayton, Okogie) far outpaces the projected five for Los Angeles (Mann, George, Leonard, Morris, Zubac) in Net Rating. Granted, neither lineup has played extensive minutes this season, but such disparity reinforces the notion that the Clippers are wrongfully favored tonight.

Bet: Suns +1 (-110)

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