Top NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/18)
It’s that time!
The NBA season has arrived, with two games on the slate for tonight. We’ll have you covered throughout the entire season in the NBA, so be prepared for a terrific season of profit.
Every Tuesday, I’ll lay out my best bets for the slate of games. Let’s have ourselves a day to start the season off!
(Odds courtesy DraftKings)
Top NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/18)
The Philadelphia 76ers will kick off the regular season on the road against the Boston Celtics. It’s the season’s first game, so we don’t have many data points to back our bets.
James Harden will likely get the start at guard for the 76ers, along with Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, and Joel Embiid. The bench consists of De’Anthony Melson, Shake Milton, Montrezl Harrell, Matisse Thybulle, Furkan Korkmaz.
Meanwhile, the Celtics will likely start Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Al Horford. Center Robert Williams will miss at least two months due to injury. But the bench still has many intriguing pieces, including Malcolm Brogdon, Grant Williams, Payton Pritchard, Blake Griffin, and Sam Hauser.
Both teams ultimately look the same as last year. Tucker will be loved in Philadelphia with his energy and effort.
Last year, the 76ers scored 114 points per 100 possessions and shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.9%. Those were average numbers, but Philadelphia limited turnovers to 12.9%, which was fourth best in the league. The Sixers struggled to earn offensive rebounds but were the best team at getting to the line.
Defensively, the 76ers allowed 110.7 points per 100 possessions and gave their opponents an effective field goal percentage of 52.5. Philly earned 13.6% turnovers and was average on the defensive glass, giving up 26% of offensive rebounds.
Meanwhile, the Celtics won’t have Robert Williams on defense. That’ll sting a bit. The defense was first in points per 100 possessions and first in effective field goal percentage, allowing an effective field goal percentage of just 50.4%. They kept teams off the line at a solid rate and also earned over 14% of turnovers.
Boston’s key to this game is keeping Philadelphia off the foul line. On offense, the Celtics scored 114.3 points per 100 possessions with an effective field goal percentage of 54.2%. They were average in every category between points, field goal percentage, turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throw rate.
The Celtics are going to miss Williams, as I continue to say. But if the defense starts playing like they did last year and keeps the 76ers away from the foul line, they’ll escape home with a win.
Bet: Celtics -2 (-110 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors
The drama has been real between both teams in the offseason.
The Warriors watched a practice video leak with Draymond Green punching Jordan Poole. Meanwhile, there’s also a video of Russell Westbrook refusing to huddle with the rest of the Lakers team in a preseason game after a foul was called.
Westbrook has now been demoted to the second team. He’ll likely be on the bench to start tonight’s game. Instead, Austin Reaves will start at guard along with Patrick Beverley. The Lakers don’t have much depth. The season will come down to LeBron James and Anthony Davis being healthy. Straight up.
On the other hand, the Warriors are coming off an NBA Championship. Now they’re healthy to start the year. That’s scary stuff. The starting lineup will likely be the same as their championship team. It sounds like Green will get the start for the Warriors in this game.
The offense ranked 4th in effective field goal percentage but also turned the ball over 15.2% of the time last year, which was one of the worst rates in the league. Defensively, however, the Warriors were second in points per 100 possessions and effective field goal percentage, trailing the Boston Celtics, who they still defeated in the NBA Championship last year.
The Lakers’ stats are not worth looking into. They’ve got a new head coach with many new players and a healthy James and Davis. I just have to see the Lakers have success before I believe it.
The Warriors have proven that they can win with their lineup. The Lakers haven’t. I’ll roll with the Warriors at -6.
Bet: Warriors -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
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