NBA Finals First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Game 4 (Nuggets vs. Heat)
The NBA Finals shifts to a pivotal Game 4. The Nuggets look to take a commanding 3-1 lead before going back to Denver. Meanwhile, the Heat will look to knot things up at two games each. It's important for both of these teams to set a tone early. The First Basket is a great prop to get off to a strong start for bettors as well. Here are some of my favorite plays that I'm targeting for this big matchup.
Season to Date: 19-75-5, +2.85 units
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Friday’s NBA Best First Basket Scorer Prop Bets
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat
The Heat have been the tone-setters in each of the last two games of this series as Bam Adebayo has successfully won the opening tip. The correlation between tip wins and First Baskets is both clear and obvious. In both instances of a Miami-won tip, they've targeted Bam on the first possession. He missed the opening shot attempt in both games but was targeted again in the second possession and cashed this prop in Game 3.
It's really no surprise that Bam had success in Game 3. He's scored the Heat's team First Basket in five of their last ten contests. It's clear that Miami is trying to get him involved in the offense early. This is especially apparent against a Denver team that gave up over 25% of opponent’s first field goals to centers. With this matchup and his hot hand, I love Adebayo to get a First Basket on Friday night.
Pick: 0.25u on Bam Adebayo (+650)
When it comes to the Nuggets' first offensive possessions there is one player who has put himself above the rest. I'm not talking about the otherworldly talent of Nikola Jokic, but instead the breakout superstar of these playoffs, Jamal Murray. Murray has led the Nuggets in first team baskets during the playoffs with six, twice as many as any other Nugget.
His impact on this offense has been maximized in these playoffs as it has flourished when Nikola Jokic is distributing. Murray has repeatedly gotten early attempts in this series, attempting at least one of the first three field goals for Denver in each game. The matchup with Miami doesn't stick out as a must-play but the way he's competed this postseason, he's the best play for the Nuggets.
Pick: 0.25u on Jamal Murray (+650)
Plenty of players have had impacts on this series, but none have had quite the correlation as Max Strus. In Game 1 Strus went an unbelievable 0/10 from the field in a Miami loss. The following game, he went 4/10, scoring the First Basket, and helping Miami to a victory. Game 3 saw him go 1/7 from the field and Miami fell. The Heat know that players like Strus will be paramount in making this a series, so don't be surprised if they go back to him early.
The matchup with Denver is positive for Strus. The Nuggets allowed over 25% of opponent first field goals to shooting guards which is why Strus has had success getting early shot attempts in this series. The Heat know Strus needs to get going in this game so I like them to look to him early and will make a small play on the sharpshooter.
Pick: 0.1u on Max Strus (+750)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:
- NBA Finals Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks, & Predictions
- NBA PrizePicks Player Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions
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