NBA Finals First Basket Scorer Picks & Predictions: Thursday (Heat vs. Nuggets)
It’s time!
The Miami Heat will take on the Denver Nuggets in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The storylines will be great regardless of who wins. Nikola Jokic could win his first NBA title after earning multiple MVPs. On the other hand, Jimmy Butler could earn his first championship and solidify himself as one of the top players in the league.
Today I’ll be looking at the first-basket market.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets
The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets only played two games in the regular season. The Nuggets won both of those games.
The Nuggets won the tip on December 30 and scored the first basket. But on February 13, in the second game, the Heat won the tip and scored the opening basket.
The Heat and Nuggets have each won the tip 48% of the time throughout the year. The Nuggets have taken the first shot in 51% of games, while the Heat have taken the first shot in 49%.
But what stands out the most is the first baskets.
The Heat have only made the first basket in 38% of games, while the Nuggets have made the first basket in 51%. Denver has the edge and will likely score the first basket more times than the Heat in this series.
Nikola Jokic has the most first shots for the Nuggets with 13. But Jamal Murray is right behind him with 12 first shots. Jokic has 16 made first baskets, while Murray only has seven. Michael Porter Jr., despite taking only eight first shots, has more first baskets with 10.
That’s more than Murray. Aaron Gordon has also made seven first-baskets and has seven first-basket attempts. So the Nuggets share the rock early.
Nikola Jokic has the highest probability of scoring first. But Aaron Gordon is also sitting at +1400 to score first on FanDuel. Gordon has as many first baskets as Jamal Murray this season. There’s value in Gordon scoring first.
If you want to be a bit risky, take a shot at Gordon. If you want to play it safer, Jokic has the highest probability of scoring first for the Nuggets.
Bet: Nikola Jokic (+390)
Bet: Aaron Gordon (+1400)
Also make sure to check out the rest of Thursday’s best bets:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB PrizePicks Player Projections
- NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- NBA Playoffs Player Prop Odds, Picks & Predictions
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts