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NBA Finals Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (Heat vs. Nuggets)

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With Denver taking a 2-1 lead in game three, they look to take a stranglehold of the series tonight in the second straight game at Miami. The Heat have struggled of late at home, but they also have bounced back every time anyone has doubted this team. I am here to give the best player props for today's game, with Denver as a current 3.5-point favorite and a 210.5 over/under. Remember to shop around for the best odds.  

Best NBA Finals Game 4 Prop Bets

Last Time: 2-1
Season: 36-33 (+6.8% ROI)

Jamal Murray Under 13.5 Reb + Ast (-130 bet365)

After coming off an impressive triple-double, Murray's props are reasonably over-inflated. Now, reasonably so, I am a bit scared to bet any under for Murray or Jokic, but at the very least, I am avoiding the underscoring.

Murray has gone under this combo prop in 10 of his last 15 games. I have to imagine Erik Spoelstra will make the necessary edits to combat the Nuggets’ offense, and while I don't doubt Murray's ability to score, I do see his rebounding and assists taking a hit. 

I will be betting one unit on this, and I do see Denver's scoring generally taking a hit today, so Murray's assist should take a hit. This feels like a risky one, but the books are setting it with a high likelihood of happening.  

Kevin Love Over 6.5 Pts + Ast (-115 betMGM)

Everyone is focusing on the firepower in this game – Jokic, Murray, Butler, and Adebayo. But, and I can't believe I am saying this, the real value lies with Kevin Love.

Kevin Love going over the combo prop is one of the best values out there, with a 73 percent chance of going over. He has hit this prop in 53 percent of games of late, and he's averaged nearly eight points a game on the year.

While I do not expect him to hit that with the importance of today's game, he still has the capability of scoring here and there, averaging almost two three-pointers a game as well.

If other's do take over the scoring, Love could see a bump in assists if he can find the open man in the corner today. 

Caleb Martin Over 13.5 Pts + Reb (-120 betMGM)

I have been a Caleb Martin hater recently because his props were quite inflated.

After his performance this series, having two three-point outings, he did bounce back a bit last game with 10 points. This bet has a +30 percent bet rating, and I am following the number. 

Martin has been capable of double-digit rebounds, as seen in the Boston series, and is simply capable of getting to this over by points or rebounds alone. These are the most exciting props, but sometimes you have to be simple to get the money.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

 

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