NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Monday (11/18)
There are eight games on the NBA slate tonight, including multiple matchups on NBA TV. While many of these games will have exciting moments throughout, I’m only worried about the first minute.
Let’s find some value in the first-basket scorer market tonight.
Also, make sure to check out our NBA First Basket Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for help identifying all of today’s best prop bets.
Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns
It’ll be Goga Bitadze for the Magic going up against Jusuf Nurkic of the Suns in tonight’s opening tip-off. Bitadze has participated in the opening tip just seven times this season. He’s added the tip in 43% of games in those seven games. With that, the Magic have scored first in just 43% of games this season.
On the other hand, Nurkic has won the tip in 85% of his first 13 attempts. As a result, the Suns have scored first in 57% of games this season. If Nurkic wins the tip at his 85% rate, the Suns’ first-basket rate should increase over time.
That said, Orlando has allowed the first basket to every position 25% of the time other than the point guard. There are no strong trends here. However, Devin Booker has taken the Suns’ first field goal attempt in 43% of games this season. While he only has one first basket made, he’ll likely be the first player attempting a shot in this game.
Let’s give Booker a chance at +390 odds.
Pick: Devin Booker (+390)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings will likely roll with Keegan Murray for tonight’s tip-off. Murray is an undersized forward who has only attempted the tip once this season. In that game, he failed to win the tip.
On the other hand, he’ll take on Clint Capela, who has added the tip in 79% of games this season. Capela has also helped the Hawks earn the first basket in 79% of games this year. Capela is a true center with the length and size to beat Murray to the ball when participating in the tip.
Meanwhile, in 14 games, the Kings have allowed the first basket to seven different players. Of those seven players, 43% were shooting guards and 29% were power forwards.
Therefore, I’m looking at Dyson Daniels and Jalen Johnson here.
Daniels has only scored the first basket in one of 12 games this season. He’s also attempted the team’s first basket in just 8% of games this season. Conversely, Jalen Johnson has attempted the team’s first basket in 21% of games and has made three first baskets in 14 games.
I’m more comfortable backing Johnson to score first tonight.
Pick: Jalen Johnson (+650)