NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Monday (5/6)
Tonight’s two-game playoff slate will feature two NBA first basket scorer picks. Let’s see if we can nail at least one NBA first basket before the night ends.
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Let’s dive into our top NBA first basket scorer prop bet picks for today’s slate of games.
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Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
Let’s dive into our top NBA first basket scorer player prop bet picks for Monday’s playoff games.
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
The first tip-off of the night will be between Myles Turner of the Pacers and Isaiah Hartenstein of the Knicks. These two competed for the tip once this season, and Myles Turner won the tip.
Turner has only won the tip in 43% of games this season. Meanwhile, the Pacers have scored first in 44% of games this season, which isn’t very good.
On the other hand, Hartenstein has won the tip just 22% of the time. Yet, the Knicks have still scored first 45% of the time. It’s way more likely the Pacers end up with the ball first, even at Madison Square Garden.
Therefore, the Pacers should also be the first team to attempt the first field goal, which would give them a higher probability of scoring first in this game.
The Knicks allowed 36% of First Baskets throughout the year to small forwards this season. Therefore, Indiana’s Aaron Nesmith is the play here. He’s only made two First Baskets in 47 starts. However, he’s still attempted the team’s first basket in 26% of games. He hasn’t been super consistent to begin games, but a wide open look could change that.
Let’s back Nesmith at +1000 odds to score first.
Bet: Aaron Nesmith (+1000)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Nikola Jokic already added a tip win against Rudy Gobert in Game 1. However, Minnesota has been much more consistent in starting games in the playoffs.
Gobert and the Timberwolves have scored first 80% of the time this playoffs, despite only winning the tip in 20% of games. On the other hand, Jokic has won the tip in 67% of games, but Denver has only scored first in 50% of matchups.
However, the bigger sample size shows the bigger picture. Jokic has won the tip in 61% of games this season, while Gobert has only won the tip in 48% of games this season. Jokic and the Nuggets still have an edge, especially at home.
The Timberwolves allowed 30% of First Baskets to power forwards this season, the second-most in the NBA behind Houston’s 33%.
Denver’s power forward is Aaron Gordon, who made eight First Baskets in 73 starts in the regular season. Gordon took the team’s First Basket in 18% of games. He hasn’t scored the most First Baskets for the Nuggets, but the Timberwolves typically forget about the power forward early in games. Let’s take a chance on the former Arizona Wildcat.
Bet: Aaron Gordon (+850)