NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/12)
For the final Friday of the NBA regular season, all 30 teams are in action. All 20 teams that will move onto the postseason are set, but some seeding arrangements are still up for grabs. With some teams having plenty to play for and others looking to wrap things up, lineups will be in flux. Given that, here are my favorite plays for First Basket this Friday, April 12.
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Friday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Indiana Pacers at Cleveland Cavaliers
This game means plenty for the Pacers, as they are looking to avoid the Play-In tournament and will hope to have their first round matchup set. They'll likely need to win an additional game to make that a reality and they are going up against another team jockeying for Eastern Conference playoff positioning in Cleveland.
The matchup for First Basket here is interesting. Indiana has an elite offense, but, surprisingly, the squad has struggled with First Baskets. A low opening tip win percentage plays a role there whereas Cleveland has one of the best opening tip win percentages in the league. This has led to a First Basket win rate well over the league average. With a few good positional matchups, I'm focused on Cleveland here.
Donovan Mitchell is the clear choice in this game. Indiana gives up their fair share of early scores to opposing guards and Mitchell thrives in this position. He leads the Cavaliers with 21 first team scores this year and that's led to 12 First Basket winners. I like him to take control here early and cash us one last time in the regular season.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell (+430)
Atlanta Hawks at Minnesota Timberwolves
The Hawks have been a tough team to gauge all season. They have plenty of talent, but it doesn't seem to translate into anything on the court. They've dealt with their fair share of injuries and are just now coming back to health with Trae Young back in the lineup. The Wolves have dealt with injuries of their own, but they've stayed towards the top of the Western Conference standings all year.
Even with their lack of success in wins and losses, Atlanta has had a lot of success as a team with First Baskets. Conversely, Minnesota is a below average First Basket team. I'll be looking to the Atlanta lineup for a play on Friday.
With Young back in the lineup it can be enticing to look his way, but even before his injury he had little to no success with this prop. Instead it's been Dejounte Murray who has thrived when it comes to First Baskets. I'll be looking at him here in this matchup with Minnesota. He has only won this nine times, but his 19 first team scores are a solid mark. I banking that he's been a bit unlucky with the other team scoring first and that he overcomes this here.
Pick: Dejounte Murray (+900)
Detroit Pistons at Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch here with Luka Doncic playing at an MVP level. They'll take on a Detroit team destined to pick near the top of the lottery yet again. I will be looking to Dallas to get off to a hot start in this one.
Detroit has struggled in many areas. After a hot start on this prop early in the season, they've fallen off quite a bit since the All-Star break. They went from being one of the best teams in the league to around league average fairly quickly. Dallas meanwhile, with all of their firepower, has performed well on this prop. One matchup in particular provides quite a bit of value.
Detroit struggles against opposing bigs when it comes to First Baskets. Although Dallas has star guards, they have a solid big man in Daniel Gafford. He's only cashed this prop seven times this season but with the matchup against Detroit you'll be getting good value on a longer number and he's worth the play.
Pick: Daniel Gafford (+850)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: