NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/1)
We’ve got a couple of enticing matchups for the first-basket market. Some of these games have a major edge, and we’re about to attack them.
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Monday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Hornets
Kristaps Porzingis has the highest tip win percentage of the slate tonight. Porzingis has won the tip in 78% of games this season, which is one reason why the Celtics have scored the first basket in 64% of games this season.
Porzingis will face Nick Richards of the Charlotte Hornets, who has only won the tip in 50% of games this season. However, even worse, the Hornets have scored the first basket in only 38% of games this season.
The Celtics should be the ones to get the ball first and score first.
I’ll be looking at the Celtics’ small forward and center positions. The Hornets have allowed 26% of first baskets to small forwards and 28% to centers.
That leaves us with Porzingis and Jaylen Brown as the potential first-basket scorers. Brown and Porzingis have each made the first basket about 30% of the time. However, Brown has attempted the team’s first field goal in 32% of the time, while Porzingis has only attempted the team’s first field goal in 25% of games.
Brown has a little more of an edge than Porzingis. So let’s take Jaylen Brown to score first at +500 odds.
Bet: Jaylen Brown (+500)
Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans
The Phoenix Suns will rely on Jusuf Nurkic to win the tip over Jonas Valanciunas of the New Orleans Pelicans. It’s already worked out once this season.
Nurkic is 1-0 against Valanciunas in opening tips this season.
Nurkic has won the tip in 71% of attempts this season, helping the Suns score first in 54% of games this year. On the other hand, Valanciunas has only won the tip in 49% of games. As a result, the Pelicans have only scored first in 50% of games this season.
The edge certainly favors the Suns here.
That said, the Pelicans have allowed the first basket to centers 32% of the time and power forwards 27% of the time. We’ll want to attack those two positions in the Phoenix lineup.
In tonight’s lineup, Kevin Durant is the power forward, and Nurkic will be the center. While both players have attempted more than 25% of the team’s first field goal attempts, Durant has added the first basket in 31% of games played. Despite playing in two games less, he’s scored one more first basket than Nurkic.
Let’s back Durant at +550.
Bet: Kevin Durant (+550)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: