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NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (2/13)

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After what I hope was a lucrative Super Bowl everyone, we can jump back into betting the NBA. Let's keep 2023 going right by winning some money in first-basket bets. As always, there is a lot of variability when it comes to betting the first basket but keep in mind, these bets are to maximize your profit in the long run with some being mere lottery tickets.

Here are my favorite first-basket options for tonight's slate. 

And here are our other top picks for Monday:

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>

Monday's Best NBA First Basket Prop Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

San Antonio Spurs at Cleveland Cavaliers

As a 14.5-point favorite with the top-ranked defense against the 28th-ranked defense in Cleveland, I have to go with a Cavalier to score first tonight and that go-to is Darius Garland.

Jarrett Allen has won roughly two-thirds of tips this year and will go up against Zach Collins who is 50/50. Again, even if the Spurs do win the tip, I am not confident in their ability to capitalize early, especially against Cleveland.

Assuming the Cavs do score the first bucket, over half the time they go to one of their guards to score first. I'm not particularly scared of the Spurs stopping either of the Cavs' backcourt options and Garland is simply a better value than Donovan Mitchell (+340) but I don't mind throwing half a unit on either option.

Pick: Darius Garland (+550)

Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls

With Nikola Vucevic struggling in the tip win rate column, I usually fade the Bulls to score first and it has been a strategy working for me so far so why stop now?

Carter may have the shortest odds to score first tonight but it is still a solid value. Winning tips at a 57 percent rate, I'm taking a Magic player to score first against this Chicago defense. Orlando goes down low early with their center scoring their first bucket at a 30 percent rate. It helps that the Bulls allow opponents’ first buckets to come from the center position at nearly the same exact rate.

Carter is one of the easier choices I've had when betting first buckets, so I'm putting an entire unit on this one.   

Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. (+500)

New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder

Again, this is more so fading the Thunder than anything else. Oklahoma City not only struggles at winning jump balls but scores the first bucket of the game only 41 percent of the time. Their offense may be solid but going against a top-10 defensive team can cause problems for them too, even if they win the opening tip. 

This is another example of the offensive team going to their center often for the first bucket (27%) and the defensive team allowing first buckets to the opponents' center often (28%). I won't spend too much time on this one but no big value plays tonight. Another bet where I'll be betting one unit. 

Pick: Jonas Valanciunas (+500)

Last Week: 0-2 (-1.0U)
This Year: 2-14 (+1.5U)

Whether you're new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section - including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners - or head to more advanced strategy - like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread - to learn more.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>


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All opening tip and first basket data courtesy of NBA First Basket (@NBAFirstBasket)

 

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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