Navigate

NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (1/28)

by |

Saturday’s NBA slate brings us around-the-clock action. With the football season beginning to wind down, basketball season is preparing to take center stage. Let’s take a look at the schedule to find some First Basket prop winners.

Season to Date: 1-3, +0.63 units

And check out our other top picks for Saturday:

Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>

Saturday’s Best First-Basket Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings)

New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets

The battle for New York adds another chapter on Saturday with the Knicks traveling to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. Brooklyn has been very successful when it comes to First Baskets because they’ve been able to score their first field goal in less than two attempts on average.

There are two Nets that I’m focusing on due to matchups with the Knicks. The first is Kyrie Irving. Irving has been the team’s leading scorer with Durant out of the lineup, but this hasn’t really translated to First Baskets. The matchup with New York is interesting, however, because they give up 25% of their first field goals to point guards. A lack of attempt volume has led to low First Basket output for Kyrie, but a good matchup could be a perfect spot for a volume scorer.

The other player I’m focusing on is Ben Simmons. Simmons has really stepped up in the First Basket scene with Durant out. He has scored the first field goal in three of his last nine starts after doing so in just four of the previous 23. Although Simmons is relatively positionless, he plays a power-forward-type role from a scoring perspective, and the Knicks like to give up first field goals to power forwards as well. Sprinkling a play on the hot hand with a favorable matchup is a solid play for Saturday.

Pick: 0.25u Kyrie Irving (+600) & 0.25u Ben Simmons (+500)

Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic

After falling short on Friday, I’m going back to well on a back-to-back with Wendell Carter. This is another really good matchup for Carter.

Orlando has a massive tip advantage as Carter is one of the best in the league at an over 70% win rate, while Vucevic is under 33%. This makes Orlando players the more attractive play, and no play is more attractive than Carter for First Basket.

Carter still leads the team in first field goals scored, even though he’s only started about half of the games for the Magic. The Bulls are a favorable matchup for Carter as they give up the most opponent’s first field goals to centers. These combined factors make this a play on Wendell Carter for First Basket.

Pick: 0.25u Wendell Carter (+450)

Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners â€” or head to more advanced strategies — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread â€” to learn more.

View 5-star bets and historical prop performance by players with our Prop Bet Analyzer >>


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App