NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (2/29)
We’ve got an eight-game slate on the NBA board tonight! A few teams are playing that I love fading when it comes to the first basket market.
Check out my two first-basket picks below. Let’s try and hit at least one of these tonight!
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Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Charlotte Hornets
This might be a stunner to some. However, Nick Richards of the Charlotte Hornets has added two tip wins against Brook Lopez this season.
Richards has been the tip-man in 35 games this season and has won the tip in 54% of games. Meanwhile, Brook Lopez of the Bucks has been the tip-man in 56 games and has also won the tip in 54% of games.
Still, Richards and the Hornets have an advantage tonight.
Ultimately, Nick Richards has only added one first basket in 17 starts over the last 20 games. He’s not very reliable.
On the other hand, the Hornets will start three small forwards, between Miles Bridges, Brandon Miller, and Cody Martin. Of those three, only Brandon Miller has been super consistent.
Miller has made four first baskets in the last 20 games and has scored the team’s first field goal in 35% of those 20 games. He’s also attempted the team’s first field goal in 35% of the last 20 games.
Typically, you’d want to roll with centers against the Bucks. However, this time, I’m going with Brandon Miller, who has been the only consistent first-basket scorer on the Hornets lately.
Bet: Brandon Miller (+800)
Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns
Over the last 20 games, Jusuf Nurkic has won the tip in 68% of games for the Suns in 19 attempts. In those 20 games, the Suns have been the first team to score 50% of the time, which isn’t terrific, but it’s better than what the Rockets have going with Alperen Sengun.
Sengun has been the tip-man in 17 of the last 20 games and has only won the tip in 47% of those contests. The Rockets have been the first team to score in just 40% of games in the last 20.
Nurkic has already won a tip-battle against Sengun earlier this year. I’m expecting the same result in tonight’s matchup. Therefore, I’ve got the Suns winning the tip and getting the first opportunity to score in this game.
Over the last 20 games, 35% of the first basket scoring has come from power forwards.
Kevin Durant might be listed as a small forward, but he’s a power forward in the Phoenix lineup. He’s made the team’s first basket in 25% of the last 20 games and has taken the team’s first field goal attempt in 20% of the previous 20 games.
Let’s ride Durant at +500.
Bet: Kevin Durant (+500)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: