NBA First Basket Scorer Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/21)
I know the NCAA Tournament is on throughout the day. But we can still fit a couple of first-basket bets into our betting portfolio tonight!
After all, we hit a +490 first-basket bet with Chet Holmgren last night, and we want to drag that momentum into tonight’s picks.
Make sure to check out our NBA first basket cheat sheet for even more betting advice.
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Thursday’s Best NBA First Basket Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Knicks vs. Denver Nuggets
Isaiah Hartenstein has done some good things for the Knicks, replacing Mitchell Robinson at center. But he hasn’t had much success with the tip this year.
Hartenstein has only won 25% of the tip in 32 tries this season. On the other hand, Nikola Jokic has added the tip in 62% of games this season.
It’s likely, at home, that the Nuggets win the opening tip and get the first shot.
Denver will send out its usual starting five: Jokic, Michael Porter Jr., Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
The Knicks have allowed 45% of first baskets to go to the small forward this year. So that’s where we’ll target. Let’s take a chance on Michael Porter Jr. to score the first basket at +650.
Bet: Michael Porter Jr. (+650)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Although Clint Capela is 1-0 against Jusuf Nurkic this season, Nurkic and the Suns still have the edge heading into tonight’s game.
Capela has only won the tip in 45% of games this season, while Nurkic has won the tip in 70% of games. Meanwhile, both teams have scored the first basket in just over 50% of games this year.
The Hawks have allowed 34% of first baskets to go to centers and another 22% to power forwards. Those are the two positions we’ll want to attack for the Suns.
Phoenix will likely start Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Nurkic, Bradley Beal, and Grayson Allen tonight. Durant would be considered the power forward in this lineup.
While Nurkic has attempted the team’s first field goal attempt in 26% of games this season, he’s only scored the first basket in 23% of games.
Meanwhile, Durant has taken the team’s first field goal attempt in 27% of matchups and has scored the team’s first field goal in 32% of games.
Durant is much more consistent. Let’s ride with Durant at +450.
Bet: Kevin Durant (+450)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: