NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Tuesday (1/14)
Tuesday's NBA slate is filled with seven games on the schedule. Before the action tips off, let's make a couple of NBA first-basket picks. We’ll target the Cavaliers vs. Pacers and the Pelicans vs. Bulls matchups. Both games have some key trends and stats that will impact our first-scorer predictions.
NBA first-basket bets are quick and easy ways to place wagers with bigger payouts - and you'll know if they cash right away. Let's try to find some winners for a pair of games on Tuesday night. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these NBA first-basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 14th.
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Tuesday's Best NBA First Basket Bets
Who will score the first basket in today's NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today's best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers
Our top NBA first-basket pick today brings us to a rematch from Sunday. The Cavaliers and Pacers just faced off over the weekend and now play each other again on Tuesday. When it comes to the opening tip and which team might score first, we have some notable trends to follow.
Cleveland has one of the league's best win rates on opening tip-offs this season at 78.9%. Jarrett Allen has been excellent on these initial jump balls all year, consistently giving the Cavaliers first possessions. Allen is 8-1 in his past eight opening tips coming into tonight's matchup. That includes winning the tip over Myles Turner on Sunday.
Allen went 2-1 on opening tips vs. Turner last season and he's already 1-0 this year. As for Turner, he's lost six straight tip-offs and is now 2-12 over his last 14 tips. He's also won just five of his past 21 jump balls to begin games for a poor 23.8% win rate. The Pacers also just have a 35% win rate on opening tips this year with Turner at center.
If we bank on Allen getting Cleveland the first possession, there are three main options to choose from. Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland and Evan Mobley have taken a majority of the Cavs' first shots this season. Let's roll with Garland, whose 22.9% first-shot rate is the highest on the team while his 17.1% first-basket per game started rate barely trails Mobley (17.6%). His six made first baskets are also tied for the team lead with Mobley.
Pick: Darius Garland (+440)
New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls
For our other first-basket prediction, let's head to Chicago for a Pelicans vs. Bulls matchup. At first glance, the first-basket trends and stats don't favor either team here. New Orleans has just a 25% win rate on opening tips this season while Chicago has won only 10.3% itself. However, this gives us a chance to fade the Bulls and find value with the Pelicans.
The Bulls' 10.3% win rate on tip-offs is the NBA's lowest. Plus, Chicago has scored the first basket in just 10 out of 39 games so far (25.6%). Center Nikola Vucevic is regularly outmatched on the initial jump balls and the Bulls are failing to score early, even when they do get the first possession.
Despite the Pelicans' poor win rate on opening tips, there's value if we bank on them scoring the first basket. New Orleans also has 18 first baskets in 40 games for a decent 45% rate. Zion Williamson has the Pelicans' shortest odds to score first, but he hasn't done so in eight games played. He also hasn't taken any of the team's first shot attempts.
Instead, let's grab the value on Trey Murphy. His four made first baskets and 16.7% first-basket per game started rate both lead the team this season. Considering those trends and that Chicago doesn't score first very often, the odds should be shorter for Murphy.
Pick: Trey Murphy (+800)