NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Tuesday (1/21)
Tuesday’s NBA slate is a smaller one with five games on schedule, Even so, there are plenty of ways to go for our NBA first basket scorer predictions. Before the action tips off, let’s make a couple of NBA first-basket picks for the 76ers vs. Nuggets and the Magic vs. Raptors matchups. Both games have some key trends and stats that will impact our first-scorer predictions.
NBA first basket bets are quick and easy ways to place wagers with bigger payouts - and you'll know if they cash right away. Let's try to find some winners for a pair of games on Tuesday night. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 21st.
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Tuesday's Best NBA First Basket Bets
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Philadelphia 76ers at Denver Nuggets
Our top NBA first basket pick today brings us to a late-night tilt between Denver and Philadelphia. This is the second leg of tonight's TNT doubleheader and it presents a fascinating matchup. The Nuggets are large home favorites here but we're looking the other way for the first basket prediction.
Nikola Jokic is having another MVP-caliber season and should have his way with a 76ers frontcourt without Joel Embiid. Yet, Jokic isn't as dominant when it comes to tip-offs. Denver has just a 40.5% win rate on opening tips this season with Jokic at center. The Nuggets have also scored the first basket in 20 of 42 games (47.6%).
As for Philadelphia, it'll be without Embiid again tonight. Andre Drummond should start at center, though he's questionable with a toe injury. We don't know if Drummond will play as of this writing, but we'll assume he does suit up after playing on Saturday but sitting out Sunday's game.
Drummond has an impressive 11-4 record and 73.3% win rate on opening tips in his 15 starts this year. If he starts, the veteran big man gives the Sixers a much better chance at getting the first possession to score first. Drummond is also 5-2 vs. Jokic head-to-head on opening tips in their careers. Philadelphia overall has scored the first bucket in 53.6% of games this season.
For the 76ers, Paul George is the best bet to score first. His 23.1% first shot percentage and 30.8% first basket per game started rate both lead the team this year. With Embiid out, George takes on a larger offensive and scoring role overall as well. It starts with him cashing as the first basket scorer.
Pick: Paul George +750
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors
For our other first basket prediction, let's head to Toronto for a Magic vs. Raptors matchup. At first glance, the first basket trends and stats slightly favor Toronto. However, we're looking the other way and targeting a value on Orlando.
As noted, many season-long stats point to the Raptors winning the opening tip and scoring first. Toronto has a 47.6% win rate on tip-offs compared to Orlando's 40.9%. Plus, the Raptors have scored the first basket in 59.5% of games this season while the Magic have the initial bucket in just 45.5% of games.
However, a key injury situation points us toward the visitors. Goga Bitadze is out tonight, which puts Wendell Carter in line to start at center and take the opening tip-off. Carter has a decent 6-5 record on his tip-offs this season, which gives Orlando a better chance at the first possession than if Bitadze was out there. Carter is also 2-0 in his career on tips vs. Toronto center Jakob Poeltl.
For the Magic, veteran guard Kentavious Caldwell-Pope presents plenty of value. His 12.2% first shot percentage leads the active roster right now. Plus, his three made first baskets are also tied for the team lead. Yet, Caldwell-Pope is fourth among Orlando's starters in odds to score first. He's also eighth overall from both teams.
Pick: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope +950