NBA First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Tuesday (1/7)
Tuesday’s NBA slate is filled with seven games on the schedule. Before the action tips off, let’s make a couple of NBA first-basket picks. We'll target the Heat vs. Warriors and the Rockets vs. Wizards matchups. Both games have some key trends and stats that will impact our first scorer predictions.
NBA first-basket bets are quick and easy ways to place wagers with bigger payouts - and you’ll know if they cash right away. Let’s try to find some winners for a pair of games on Tuesday night. Note that all betting lines are accurate as of this writing, but shop around for the best odds. Enjoy these NBA first-basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, January 7th.
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Tuesday's Best NBA First Basket Bets
Who will score the first basket in today’s NBA games? We compare historical first-basket stats to prop bet odds to help identify today’s best bets. View first-basket odds across sportsbooks here.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors
Our top NBA first-basket pick today brings us to an interesting matchup between Miami and Golden State. With Jimmy Butler suspended, the Heat have some value options with longer odds to score first. Let's target one of those as we take a closer look at this game.
Miami has an excellent 66.7% win rate on opening tip-offs this season, the fourth-highest mark in the NBA. Center Bam Adebayo is among the best at winning those jump balls despite being slightly undersized for a center at 6-foot-9. Adebayo will go head-to-head with Warriors big man Trayce Jackson-Davis, who's also 6-foot-9.
The Warriors have a poor 22.9% win rate on opening tips this season. Jackson-Davis has not overcome his size disadvantage on the initial jump balls like Adebayo. His poor success rate on tip-offs gives Miami an even greater chance at the opening possession to score the first basket.
With Butler out for Miami, there are some intriguing picks to score first. Adebayo is an obvious choice, though, with a bigger offensive role in his teammate’s absence. Adebayo leads the team in both first shot percentage (21.9%) and first baskets made per game started rate (15.6%). On Saturday in the first game without Butler, we saw Adebayo win the opening tip and take the first two shot attempts - but missed both. He’ll cash it this time around.
Pick: Bam Adebayo (+410)
Houston Rockets at Washington Wizards
For our other first-basket prediction, let's head to Washington as the Wizards host the Rockets. This pick is a simple one because Houston center Alperen Sengun continues to be very profitable to back for this prop.
Sengun has scored the first basket in 32.4% of his games started this year. That's the second-highest rate in the entire NBA. Plus, the Rockets have scored the first bucket in 23 out of 35 games (65.7%). Sengun made 11 of those 23 (47.8%). He's the clear best option on Houston to cash in as the first basket scorer, and it's not even close.
Tonight, Sengun will face Washington center Alex Sarr on the opening tip-off. Sarr has been decent on jump balls and could win the initial one here. However, the Wizards are not capitalizing. They've scored only 10 first baskets in 33 games, tied for the second-fewest in the league.
This is purely a numbers play with one of the best first-basket scorers (Sengun) facing one of the NBA's worst teams at scoring first (Washington). The odds won’t be as juicy as others, but sometimes you just want to back the right play.
Pick: Alperen Sengun (+470)