NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Odds & Picks: Wednesday (5/15)
As a 15.5-point favorite, the Boston Celtics will need a fast start to cover in Game 5 against the Cavaliers. At this point, Donovan Mitchell and Jarrett Allen are both questionable with the Cavaliers. But thatâs not a good enough reason to back the Celtics in the first-basket market.
Iâll break down the NBA first basket scorer market for that game, along with the Mavericks-Thunder Game 5 matchup below.
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Wednesdayâs Best NBA First Basket Scorer Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
There were rumblings about Jarrett Allen returning in Game 4, but he didnât. In addition to Allen sitting out, Donovan Mitchell was too banged up to play in Game 4 as well.
Therefore, the Cavaliers will likely be stuck with Evan Mobley for the tip against Al Horford of the Celtics. Mobley has already been the tip-man in seven games in the playoffs. In those seven games, Mobley has won the tip in 71% of games, helping the Cavaliers score first in 64% of playoff games this year.
On the other hand, Al Horford has only won the tip in 40% of games after participating in the opening tip five times. However, in the playoffs, the Celtics have scored first in 78% of games.
Still, Iâd rather the team that has the better chance of winning the tip and taking the first shot. Thatâs the Cavaliers.
In the regular season, the Celtics allowed the first basket to go to the point guard in 30% of games. Darius Garland is healthy and will be the leading-scorer for the Cavaliers if Allen and Mitchell are out. Therefore, letâs back Darius Garland to score first in Game 5.
NBA First Basket Scorer Bet: Darius Garland (+1000)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks
Chet Holmgren has won the tip in all four meetings against the Mavericks in the playoffs. However, the Thunder arenât scoring the first basket consistently in the playoffs, scoring only 25% of the first basket.
On the other hand, Holmgren will face Daniel Gafford, who has only won the tup in 40% of games in the playoffs. However, the Mavericks have scored first in 80% of games during the playoffs, despite Gaffordâs weak record when competing for the tip.
As always, the team that wins possession first has a higher probability of scoring first. So, Iâll stick with the Thunder to score first against the Mavericks. In the playoffs, the small forward and center have scored the first basket 50% of the time each, as theyâve only allowed two first baskets in ten games.
Dallas also allowed the most first baskets to centers in the regular season. Therefore, Iâm rolling with Chet Holmgren again for Game 5.
NBA First Basket Scorer Bet: Chet Holmgren (+460)