Top 5 NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (11/18)
There are eight games on the slate this evening, and certainly no shortage of options to mull over. Without any further preamble, let's jump right into some of our favorite picks for Monday, November 18.
Monday’s Best NBA Picks
(NBA odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New York Knicks Team Total Under 122.5 Points (-115)
We kick things off at Madison Square Garden where the Knicks take on the Washington Wizards. As it is with most teams tonight, both squads are on the second leg of a back-to-back. Unfortunately for the Wizards, success is once again hard to come by this season, as New York continues to grow into their new look as a team.
At first glance, the 122.5 total for the Knicks seems completely egregious considering the team only played yesterday and rarely goes into their bench for reprieve. Although there is some merit to the number, we simply feel New York falls short this evening against the Wizards.
Washington is allowing just under 124 points per game to opposing teams on 47% shooting from the field, with 14.3 baskets from distance on 36.6% shooting. New York, on the other hand, scores 115.5 points per game. This number slightly increases to 117.3 at home.
We are 6-8 points under the total right from the start based on New York's averages. Combined with the points allowed per game from Washington, we are still almost four points under. The Knicks also play at the second-slowest place across the association.
New York doesn't play their bench. Considering this will be their third game in four nights, it should not surprise anyone if the Knicks cannot clear the 122.5-point total this evening.
Houston Rockets Moneyline (+142)
The Milwaukee Bucks are fortuned with the return of Damian Lillard to the starting lineup after missing four games due to a concussion. The sportsbooks feel that will be enough to beat a scorching Rockets team that has won five straight contests. We beg to differ.
What separates these two teams is also the reasoning behind our selection - depth. Milwaukee relies heavily on the scoring prowess of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, with additional production from a supporting cast. Houston plays deep into their bench, with just about the full roster seeing some type of playing time every night.
The Rockets scored over 140 points last night. They did so with 14 players touching the floor. The starting unit for Houston averaged only 25.8 minutes last night, so expect them to incur a full allotment of minutes for this contest. Milwaukee has four wins on the season in total, so it's tough to take that kind of success against a team amid a five-game winning streak.
Atlanta Hawks +4.5 (-110)
The Hawks fly into Sacramento to take on a Kings team that will once again be missing the productive tandem of DeMar DeRozan and Domantas Sabonis. Sacramento has fared well even though these two players have not been available over the past two games - picking up one win and a four-point loss against Minnesota on the strength of two phenomenal scoring performances from De’Aaron Fox (scoring 60 points against the Timberwolves and 49 points against the Jazz).
With those types of incredible feats of scoring, you have to consider Fox’s points props as well. However, the +4.5 seems like a gift we should not pass up on.
It has to be stated that Atlanta hasn't proven to be the most efficient of teams on the road, sporting a 2-4 record in those situations. The Hawks also lost a close one to the Portland Trailblazers last night (114-110), which means we can expect a vengeful Atlanta team looking to get back into winning form.
Atlanta averages four more field-goal attempts on the road than they do at home. The Hawks also are shooting a higher percentage from beyond the arc on the road as well.
The Hawks are 3-3 over their last six games, including huge wins against both the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics. This will be a back-to-back for both teams, as well as being the third game in four nights.
The Kings are 6-7-1 against the spread (ATS). We have no problem taking the generous +4.5 in this contest.
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers Over 226.5 Points (-110)
As of this morning, Steph Curry is considered questionable as he is dealing with bursitis in his knee. Stay tuned for any additional information that may come down regarding his status.
Golden State has not played since Friday and won’t play again until Wednesday, so we expect Curry to be out there for this contest. With the Warriors guard inserted into the equation, that means we can expect a ton of scoring.
This matchup will feature two teams who rank relatively well regarding offensive production. The Clippers have the 12th-best offensive rating in the league, while the Warriors enjoy much more offensive success, with a ranking of fourth across the NBA.
Over the last five games, these teams have averaged a combined 232 points per game, which leaves us with a fine amount of extra value on this selection. Golden State ranks third in the NBA in points per game. Both teams are in the top 15 in three-pointers made per game.
The Warriors also play at the fifth-highest pace of any team in the league, so if Los Angeles is going to keep this as close as the spread indicates, expect a good amount of scoring from both teams.
Franz Wagner Over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
We close out the contests tonight with a bit of a no-brainer. Without Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner has been smashing the scene, and there's every reason to believe that continues tonight against Phoenix.
Over the past five games, Wagner has averaged a monstrous 28.4 points, 6.2 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game. If you take the previous three contests, those numbers increase to 30.7 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.7 assists.
Wagner faces a Suns team tonight who are allowing the eighth-most rebounds, the 14th-most points and the 15th-most assists across the NBA. All-in-all, this just seems like a smash play and also our favorite selection of the evening.
Enjoy the games tonight and best of luck with your picks.