Top 3 NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (11/17)

Sunday's NBA action is packed and full of value. With 10 games on the slate, it features a couple of edges that aren't being valued properly this season. Here are a few of my favorite plays for Sunday.

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Sunday’s Best NBA Picks

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

The Suns' lack of depth has been on full display with Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal on the mend. With the two stars out of the lineup, the Suns have gone 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), failing to cover the spread by 12 points a contest. Next up is an underachieving Minnesota Timberwolves team.

Minnesota has gone only 5-8 ATS but the underlying numbers indicate this should turn around. Their defensive rating is fifth-best in the NBA, right around where they sat last season. While their offense sits closer to the middle of the pack, this also aligns with where they were last year when they finished 56-26 SU.

The Timberwolves have done well to prevent teams from putting up three-pointers. Their rate of threes allowed is the lowest in the league and their three-point defensive rate is top six at 34.3%. This is bad news for Phoenix, who relies heavily on threes. With the injuries, Phoenix doesn't have the firepower to score consistently on this defense. Minnesota got off to a slow start on the season but we should start seeing things turn around. We'll see it on Sunday.

Pick: Timberwolves -6.5 (-110)

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers

These two teams met on Friday during NBA Cup play. Miami won that contest 124-111. Things have been fairly par for the course for Indiana, who continues to be held back by their defense. Last season the defense ranked 24th in defensive rating. This year they sit at 24th again. The offense still ranks in the top 10 in the league with a strong shooting performance.

Miami, known for a long time for its elite defense, has taken a small step back this season. The Heat went from being a top-five three-point defensive team to a league-average one giving up 36.8% from deep. This is good news for a strong shooting team like Indiana.

Friday's 124-111 result might seem like an anomaly on the surface, but the shooting splits were pretty on par with both teams' season averages. Because of this, the total for this Sunday’s matchup is too low. Both of these defenses are average to substandard. Even without Jimmy Butler, Miami and Indiana can score. I like this game between two East rivals to hit the over.

Pick: Over 228 Points (-110)

Detroit Pistons at Washington Wizards

It's been another tough season for Washington, who sits near the bottom of the league in both offensive and defensive ratings. The Wizards have compiled a 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record and come into this matchup with the Pistons as underdogs.

Detroit has started a bit of a turnaround this season as they've gone 6-8 SU and have an incredibly impressive 8-5-1 ATS record. Their strength of schedule is top half in the league and a game against Washington could be the reprieve they need. However, with this being the third and final game of a road trip I don't have much confidence in backing the spread. Instead, there is another angle I like.

These two teams rank 29th and 30th in turnover rate. They're two young backcourts that have not been taking care of the ball. Although Washington plays at a fast pace, Detroit has been able to slow even their fastest opponents down with the fifth-slowest pace in the league. Additionally, both of these teams are in the bottom ten in effective field goal percentage (eFG%). This game figures to play out as a sloppy game where the total should coast to an under.

Pick: Under 228 Points (-110)