Top 3 NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (12/15)
After the NBA Cup semi-finals on Saturday, many of the other teams in the league continue playing on Sunday. With seven games on the schedule, there are still plenty of opportunities to find value on the board. Here are a few of my favorite plays for the Sunday slate.
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Sunday's Best NBA Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers
It's been a tough start to the season for both of these teams. After a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals in May, Indiana had high hopes for this year but has gotten off to an 11-15 start. For New Orleans, things couldn't be worse. The trade for Dejounte Murray hasn't panned out because the core of Murray, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herbert Jones and Zion Williamson just cannot stay healthy. With Ingram and Williamson still on the mend, they enter this contest 5-21.
Both defenses have been bad as the Pacers rank 26th in defensive rating and the Pelicans rank 25th. The difference in this matchup is the Pacers have a solid offense. Their shooting puts them squarely in the top third of the league with a 55.9% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) and an elite rim shooting percentage of 66.6%. This will be an issue for the Pelicans, who have had some poor rim protection, giving up 65.8% at the rim, which is one of the worst rates in the league.
Indiana has struggled this year against the spread (ATS). They are only 9-16-1 ATS and 2-7-1 in their last 10 games. This is a great opportunity to buy low as the offense has started to click, scoring 120.7 points per game (PPG) in their last three contests. Against a New Orleans team struggling on both ends of the floor as they've battle roster flux, I like the Pacers to make a statement and buck their season-long ATS trends.
Pick: Pacers -5.5 (-115)
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic
The Magic were dealt another huge blow last week as Franz Wagner was ruled out with an oblique injury, joining star teammate Paolo Banchero. Matchups with the Suns and Bucks resulted in two ATS wins in Wagner's absence and now they'll host the Knicks on Sunday evening.
Orlando has been scorching hot at home this season. The Magic have compiled a 10-0 straight up (SU) record and are 9-1 ATS. The loss of Wagner and the success they've had since he's been out of the lineup makes them ripe for some regression.
Wagner ranked seventh in the entire NBA in estimated plus-minus (EPM). He was playing at an All-NBA level. Against a strong team like New York, the Magic may finally start to miss his presence in the lineup. I'm backing the regression of this young Orlando team dealing with key injuries and taking the Knicks.
Pick: Knicks -4.5 (-115)
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
As long as the books are overvaluing the Lakers, I'm going to fade them. On Sunday night, Los Angeles is hosting the Grizzlies and the ensuing spread is a little baffling. Memphis has been sensational against the spread with an 18-7-1 record, including a 7-3-1 record on the road. For the Lakers, they've managed to go only 10-15 ATS and are 3-7 in their last 10 contests. As impressive as Memphis has been and as disappointing as Los Angeles has played, the sportsbooks haven't caught up.
Memphis ranks sixth in the NBA in Net Rating, sitting in the top 10 of both offensive and defensive rating. Frankly, Los Angeles has struggled. They haven't shot the ball particularly well, ranking about league average in eFG%. Even worse has been their eFG% defense, which ranks 25th at 55.9%. Against a strong shooting team like Memphis, this deficiency should be exploited.
Memphis is a legitimate contender in the Western Conference. After a year marred by injury, the Grizzlies are healthy and playing like the team we saw in 2022-23. Meanwhile, Los Angeles' window for championship potential is closed with this roster core. Perhaps the betting world hasn't seen it yet, but the gap between these two teams is significant. I'm going to take the value with the short road favorites and back a surging Memphis team.
Pick: Grizzlies -2 (-110)