NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Sunday (3/16)
The calendar has turned to March and the playoff races are heating up. There is a full slate of NBA action on Sunday. Here is a look at a few spots I like for NBA best bets on Sunday.
Sunday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers looked nearly unstoppable after the Luka Doncic trade but after an injury to LeBron James and a few others, they've hit a bump in the road. They've gone 0-4 since the James injury and compiled a 1-3 record against the spread (ATS). Defensively they've struggled, allowing 119.8 points per game (PPG) over that span.
Phoenix, although disappointing all season, is making a final push for the NBA Play-In Tournament. They've only compiled a 3-4 record in March, which is still enough to keep pace or better the teams ahead of them, but they managed to go 5-2 ATS. They've played well offensively in their wins, scoring 122 PPG. The Suns are a very good scoring team and are in the top eight in both effective field goal rate (eFG%) and free-throw rate. Against a banged-up Lakers team, I think they can outmatch them and keep up their hot ATS results in March.
Pick: Suns +4 (-112)
Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets
This feels like a mispriced line. The Nets are finally getting healthy down the stretch, but they still sit six games behind the Bulls for the 10th seed and trail Toronto and Philadelphia in the standings. With just 15 games left, they may care more about their lottery position than a longshot chance at the Play-In.
March had been kind to the Hawks, winning five of their six previous games before their Friday night loss to the Clippers, covering in four of those six games. This recent streak is partially a result of an easy schedule that saw wins over Charlotte and Philadelphia, but wins over Indiana and Memphis were also sprinkled in there. Atlanta showed they are capable of beating bad teams soundly, and Brooklyn is a bad team.
Atlanta's offense has found that extra gear down the stretch, scoring 120+ points in each of the six games before Friday’s loss. Brooklyn, meanwhile, has one of the worst offenses in the league, rated 27th in offensive rating. They've shown to be incapable of putting up points even against bad defenses. Atlanta should flex a little bit and show why they're the team in this matchup that is likely playoff-bound.
Pick: Hawks -6 (-110)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks
There are few metrics this year where the Thunder don't come out as the best team in the NBA. They're tops in the Western Conference, they have the best Net Rating and they're the top defensive team. Throw on top of this that they're 40-24-3 ATS, spending their last two games handling the Celtics and Pistons. Sunday is a back-to-back for Oklahoma City, but Chet Holmgren should be well rested having not played on Saturday in Detroit.
For Milwaukee, this is another opportunity to make a statement against a legitimate title contender. They lost last week at home against Cleveland in a game they were seven-point underdogs and have struggled in these spots much of the season. Recent wins over Indiana and the Lakers show some signs of hope, but Indiana has been up and down all year and the Lakers didn't have LeBron James.
The Thunder are the best defensive team in the league. In their last matchup against Milwaukee, they allowed only 96 points. While Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play in that one, it was a game they covered by 13 points. Milwaukee is a strong shooting team generally, fourth in eFG%, but no team has a better eFG% against than the Thunder. Throw in that the Bucks are dead last in offensive rebound rate and they better hope they're hitting their shots to stay on pace with the Thunder. I'm betting they don't.
Pick: Thunder -4 (-108)