The regular season is coming down to the final stretch. There are eight games on the Sunday NBA slate with plenty of intriguing matchups. Here are a few of my favorite plays for Sunday’s NBA slate.
Sunday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
After a rough start to the season, the Hawks have turned things around and are in a strong position to make noise in the postseason. Atlanta has gone 8-5 straight up (SU) in March and 8-5 against the spread (ATS). However, they went only 4-4 SU and 4-4 ATS against teams that will be joining them in the postseason. Milwaukee has had its recent struggles and will remain without Damian Lillard for the foreseeable future, but they're still a strong team.
These two teams matched up back on March 4th, with the Bucks prevailing late in the game to win on the road and cover. Lillard played in that game and scored 23, but shot just 2-of-10 from deep. It was an uncharacteristically poor shooting day from deep as the Bucks shot 29.7%, well below their 38.2% average, which is third-best in the NBA.
The Hawks have been one of the worst three-point defenses in the league. They give up 37.4% from beyond the arc. If the Bucks play to their average shooting, this one can easily get out of hand. We're getting a little bit of value here with Lillard being out, but Atlanta hasn't looked as strong against good teams. While they've taken a hit, Milwaukee is still a good team.
Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110)
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
Both of these teams are jockeying for lottery positioning as we come down the final stretch of the regular season. Toronto has been on a nice run as of late. They've won three in a row and have been playing some stellar defense. During this streak, they've given up just 95.7 points per game (PPG). A counter to this could be that they've played three of the worst offenses in the league in Washington, Brooklyn and Charlotte, but Philadelphia, without their stars, has been just as poor offensively.
The 76ers have averaged just 102.7 PPG on their own in their recent three-game stretch. It's been a mix of poor shooting and poor rebounding that has resulted in these low point totals. There's little reason to expect a much better outcome against Toronto, who ranks 11th in defensive effective field goal rate (53.9%).
This total indicates there won't be many points scored. However, it probably isn't low enough. Toronto has been strong defensively as of late. Philadelphia’s offense has fallen off a cliff without its stars. I expect these trends to continue and recommend playing the under.
Pick: Under 221.5 Points (-110)
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns
The Rockets have quietly worked their way up to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Backed by an elite defense ranked fourth in defensive rating, the Rockets have gone 11-1 SU in their last 12 games. On Sunday, they'll take on a Phoenix Suns team desperate for a win.
The Suns are in a battle for the last two NBA Play-In Tournament spots with Sacramento and Dallas. With all the star power on the roster, you'd think they'd have more success, but it's their defense that has been sub-par. Ranking in the bottom third in both defensive rebounding rate and defensive turnover rate, the Suns have a hard time getting stops. This should benefit a Houston offense that doesn't shoot particularly well but rebounds exceptionally.
Phoenix’s offense can be slowed down by Houston. The Rockets have already held them to 107.5 PPG in their previous two matchups. This is well below their season average (114.4). I'm going to back a strong defense against a flawed Suns team and take the road favorites.
Pick: Rockets -2.5 (-108)
