With the NFL set to take center stage, there is only one game on the NBA slate for Sunday. The Oklahoma City Thunder will travel to Portland to take on the Trail Blazers. The line indicates this one should be a laugher but let's take a closer look at the matchup to see if there is any value on the sides or totals.
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Sunday's Best NBA Picks
(Odds Courtesy DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers
While Oklahoma City has been the best team in the league record-wise. Even with a crucial injury to Chet Holmgren, the Thunder, led by MVP favorite Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, have looked every bit the part of a championship contender. They're massive favorites against the Trail Blazers on Sunday but I think the line isn't big enough.
The Thunder have been every bit the best defensive team in the league. They lead all squads with a defensive eFG% of 50.3% and their turnover rate defensively is also tops in the league. Portland is on the other end of the spectrum there offensively as they rank 25th in eFG% and are second to last in the league at taking care of the ball. We should expect a lot of misses and turnovers when Portland has the ball. One thing Portland does well is offensive rebounding, but they'll be without Deandre Ayton who leads the team in boards.
Defensively, Portland may be able to do enough to slow down the Thunder offense. The biggest glaring weakness for Portland is three-point defense. Oklahoma City is an average three-point shooting team. The area the Thunder thrives in is the midrange which happens to be the one area Portland defends well with a 41.6% FG% allowed. This is a game that could end up being low-scoring like their last matchup where the Thunder prevailed 109-99.
Portland has the ability to keep this one low-scoring and close for a while. However, I think Oklahoma City proves to be too much and is able to pull away for the cover. Portland is going to miss Ayton which will negate their biggest advantage on the offensive end. I'm not sure how the Trail Blazers manage to score enough to really test the Thunder for 48 minutes without an outlier shooting performance. I'll back the Thunder in a rare low-scoring blowout.
Pick: Thunder -12 (-112)
Pick: Total u225.5 (-110)
