NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (3/25)
We’ve got another eight-game NBA slate tonight. Since there are two matchups on TNT, I’ve added my best bets for both of those games below.
Let’s have a night.
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Tuesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat
The Golden State Warriors have listed Steph Curry as questionable with a pelvis injury. It’s unclear if he’ll play in tonight’s game. That said, the Miami Heat are still a top-15 defense.
They’ve limited teams to 114 points per 100 possessions and have allowed just a 15.9% free-throw rate. In addition, the Heat have given up only 27% of offensive rebounds, which ranks eighth in the NBA. That’s important since Golden State likes to work on the offensive glass. The Warriors have gained nearly 30% of offensive rebounds, but they likely won’t reach 30% of offensive rebounds against the Heat on the road.
On the other hand, the Warriors have been even better defensively, limiting teams to 112.3 points per 100 possessions. The Warriors have also kept opponents to 27% of offensive rebounds. Beyond that, they’ve limited teams to a 54.3% effective field goal rate and have added 15.5% of turnovers. The Heat don’t shoot a high effective field goal percentage. It’s also not like Miami will add a ton of second chances off those misses, especially since the Heat have gained fewer than 25% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
With Curry questionable, the under makes complete sense.
Pick: Under 216.5 Points (-105)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Sacramento Kings
The Oklahoma City Thunder match up very well offensively against the Kings. The Thunder have added 120.6 points per 100 possessions while shooting a 56.2% effective field goal rate. The Thunder have also turned the ball over just 11.7% of the time.
Meanwhile, the Kings have allowed 116.4 points per 100 possessions. They also rank 26th in defensive effective field goal rate and have earned just 14% of turnovers. The Thunder should be able to get plenty of quality looks while also keeping turnovers down.
That said, the Thunder likely won’t dominate on the glass, especially since the Kings rank No. 1 in offensive rebounds allowed this season. Still, the Kings have given up a 20.2% free-throw rate and could give the Thunder a high number of free-throw attempts tonight.
On the other hand, the Thunder have limited teams to 107.2 points per 100 possessions. It’s not easy to score against the Thunder. Still, Oklahoma City ranks 27th in free-throw rate defensively and will likely give the Kings opportunities at the foul line all game. In addition, the Kings have grabbed 28.1% of offensive rebounds and should get more since the Thunder have allowed 28.8% of offensive rebounds per game.
If the Kings can be aggressive in those two areas, they’ll help reach the over.
Pick: Over 231.5 Points (-110)