NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/27)
The NBA has a loaded 14-game slate tonight. With no games tomorrow due to Thanksgiving, most teams are playing tonight.
After reviewing many matchups, I’ve decided on my favorite two bets.
Tail along below!
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets
The Miami Heat have scored 114.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s good for 16th in the NBA. While the Heat have limited turnovers well, the team has only shot a 53% effective field goal percentage. In addition, the Heat have grabbed only 26.5% of offensive rebounds.
You can expect the Heat to keep turnovers down. Just don’t expect Miami to dominate the offensive glass, with the Hornets allowing only 26.8% of offensive rebounds on the defensive side of the ball.
Meanwhile, the Heat have still added a 20.3 free throw rate. They’ll get to the foul line at a consistent pace tonight.
That said, the Hornets won’t. Charlotte is dead last in the NBA in terms of free throw rate, and the Heat have allowed the fifth-lowest free throw rate in the NBA on defense this season. The Hornets have had some success on the offensive glass, but that could drop,p with Miami giving up just 27.3% of offensive rebounds per game this season.
Beyond that, the Hornets have scored just 111.3 points per 100 possessions, the 23rd-highest rate, thanks to a below-average effective field goal percentage and a very high turnover percentage.
The Heat should be able to take advantage of more turnovers and get to the foul line more. Let’s back the Heat on the road at -3.5.
Pick: Heat -3.5 (-115)
Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans have lost ten consecutive games and have no timetable for Zion Williamson’s return. It’s become another disaster season for the Pelicans, who are now 4-14.
However, the Pelicans had been without Dejounte Murray for weeks and played games without C.J. McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Herbert Jones, Jordan Hawkins, and Jose Alvarado.
The Pelicans should at least have Murray and Ingram in the lineup tonight. Jordan Hawkins and Trey Murphy are also questionable but could play. Ultimately, the team will come around when it gets healthy. This could be the start.
Like the Pelicans, the Raptors have also dealt with many injuries. Toronto is 4-14 and won’t have Bryce Brown, Gradey Dick, Immanuel Quickley, or Kelly Olynyk for tonight’s game.
Toronto’s offense has shot a 51.8% effective field goal percentage, which isn’t very good. But there’s still a good chance they’ll get some good looks against a Pelicans defense that has allowed 119.5 points per 100 possessions. In addition, the Pelicans have allowed 31% of offensive rebounds. That’s huge for the Raptors, who live and die on the offensive glass.
On the other hand, the Pelicans should find some success on the offensive glass, too. After all, New Orleans has added 30.8% of offensive rebounds,s and the Raptors have allowed 29.5% of offensive rebounds. Toronto has also allowed the highest defensive free throw rate in the NBA and has forced just 13.3% of turnovers.
You can see why this team is also 4-14.
I don’t trust either defense in this game. I’ll take my chances with the Over 222. New Orleans is getting some solid offensive reinforcements.
Pick: Over 22.5 (-105)