NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/12)
We’ve got nine games on the NBA slate, including two games that will be featured on ESPN. Those two games on ESPN are super intriguing. First up, it’ll be the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Boston Celtics. Some believe this could be the matchup in the NBA Championship.
After that matchup, we’ll get the Timberwolves vs. the Nuggets in an exciting Western Conference showdown.
I’ve got a best bet for each of those games below.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Boston Celtics
The Oklahoma City Thunder will play tonight’s game without Jalen Williams, who has been ruled out with a hip injury. Meanwhile, the Celtics have listed Kristaps Porzingis as questionable. He’s been dealing with a significant illness and is working his way back to the court. Even if he does play, I wouldn’t expect a heavy workload from Porzingis.
That said, the Celtics and Thunder match up very well. The Celtics are a top-three offense in the NBA and have shot a 56.4% effective field goal percentage. However, the Thunder have held opponents to 107.2 points per 100 possessions and the lowest effective field goal percentage in the NBA.
The Thunder rank first in the NBA in turnovers on defense, but the Celtics rarely turn the ball over. This will be an intriguing matchup. Ultimately, the Celtics should be able to add a handful of second-chance points, but they don’t always get to the foul line at a high rate.
Conversely, the Thunder are way worse at getting to the foul line. It’s more likely the Celtics will get there more frequently. Meanwhile, the Celtics typically don’t force a high rate of turnovers, so it’s also more likely the Thunder will win the turnover battle in this one.
The difference could be on the glass. After all, the Celtics have limited teams to 26.8% of offensive rebounds and should end up allowing fewer second chances. At home, I’d expect the Celtics to shoot better, earn more foul shots and add more offensive rebounds. That should be enough to cover the 3.5-point spread.
Pick: Celtics -3.5 (-115)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets
The Minnesota Timberwolves are finally playing as well as many expected at the start of the season. They have won five consecutive games and are now seventh in the Western Conference. The Timberwolves have held teams to no more than 112 points in four of the five wins. However, that might be hard against the Denver Nuggets, especially on the road.
The Nuggets rank second in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and have added a 58.1% effective field goal percentage. Denver has also contributed 29.9% of offensive rebounds and certainly has an edge on the offensive glass in this game. Ultimately, Minnesota is an above-average defense and has played much more connected recently. They’ve also won the first two games against the Nuggets this season.
That said, most defenses struggle to figure out how to stop Nikola Jokic. But Minnesota hasn’t. The last time out, Jokic scored just 20 points with 11 rebounds in 32 minutes. He didn’t put up a triple-double or even take the most shots in that game for the Nuggets.
On the other hand, the Nuggets’ defense has been lackluster at times. The Nuggets rank 22nd in points per 100 possessions on defense and have added just 13% of turnovers per game. The defense has also allowed a 54.5% effective field goal percentage and nearly 28% of offensive rebounds.
The Timberwolves should be able to score at a high and consistent rate tonight. At +3.5, I’ll grab Minnesota.
Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-105)