NBA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (3/19)
ESPN is carrying a doubleheader for tonight’s 11-game NBA slate. Below is my best bet for both of these nationally televised games.
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Wednesday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Pistons vs. Miami Heat
The Miami Heat are sinking fast. They’ve lost eight straight games and are 1-9 over their last two games. They sit in the 10th spot of the Eastern Conference standings, barely hanging on to an NBA Play-In Tournament spot.
The Heat didn’t have Andrew Wiggins last time out against the Knicks and were blown out in the second half. The offense currently ranks 22nd in the NBA in points per 100 possessions and has shot just a 53.9% effective field goal rate. In addition, they’ve grabbed just 24.7% of offensive rebounds. That won’t help against a Pistons defense that has allowed just 26% of offensive rebounds this season.
The Heat’s offense is in trouble.
On the other hand, the Pistons have an average offense. Yet, they’ve scored at least 123 points in three of their last four games. The Pistons have shot a 54.9% effective field goal rate and should have better shots against Miami’s defense, which has allowed a 54.8% effective field goal rate.
The Pistons are also 2-1 against the Heat this season. Detroit is trending in the right direction while the Heat are falling flat on their face.
With eight consecutive losses, Miami is hard to trust. I’ll take the Pistons on the road.
Pick: Pistons -5.5 (-110)
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Tonight’s game between the Nuggets and Lakers will be the fourth and final regular season game between these two teams. The Nuggets have won two of the previous three games, including a March 14th win at home, 131-126.
The Nuggets last played the Warriors without Christian Braun, Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and still won the game. It just goes to show how deep the Nuggets are.
The Nuggets have the NBA’s second-best offense, scoring 121.2 points per 100 possessions. The offense has also shot a 57.9% effective field goal rate and grabbed 30% of the offensive rebounds. Those second chances should continue against a Lakers defense that has allowed a 28.3% offensive rebounding rate this season.
Meanwhile, the Lakers have already ruled out LeBron James. He won’t be back until at least March 24th. His absence hurt the Lakers in the beginning, but they have now won two straight games heading into this one.
The Lakers should be able to keep turnovers down against the Nuggets. Los Angeles can also get some quality looks, especially with the Nuggets allowing a 54.6% effective field goal rate this season. Don’t expect the Lakers to dominate the glass, but they should still score at a consistent rate.
After all, the Lakers are the No. 1 team at getting to the foul line this year.
Let’s rock with the over in this one.
Pick: Over 232.5 Points (-110)