Top 3 NBA Odds & Picks: Sunday (Timberwolves vs. Mavericks)
The Mavericks won the first two games of the Western Conference Finals on the road. Now that the series is headed to Dallas, the Mavericks are hoping to end this before a return trip. However, Minnesota showed throughout Game 2 that this series is much closer than the 2-0 score indicates. Let’s take a deeper look into the matchup at my favorite bets for a critical Game 3.
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Sunday’s Best NBA Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks
The Western Conference Finals’ first two games might be best remembered by some clutch finishes and shotmaking from the Mavericks, but what gets forgotten is that Minnesota got off to hot starts in both games. In Game 1 Minnesota got off to a quick 16-8 start and ended parlaying that into a three-point halftime lead. In Game 2, they really put the pedal to the metal and had a 12-point lead at the intermission.
As the series shifts to a new venue, it’s understandable that Minnesota is an underdog again in the first half. It’s known they’ve been one of the best teams in basketball all year and elite defensively. They need to get off to a good start in this game as no team has ever come back down 3-0. I like them to lock in defensively early and have their stars Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns show up to get them the first-half cover.
Pick: Timberwolves +1.5 1H (-110)
As I alluded to previously, Minnesota has been an elite defensive team this year. They have the top-ranked adjusted DRtg. This is driven largely by an opponent eFG% that is almost a whole percentage point lower than second place. They also have been a strong defensive rebounding team thanks in large part to a trio of bigs and some long, bouncy wings. Additionally, their lineup is anchored by two outstanding defensive guards, the veteran Mike Conley and the budding superstar Anthony Edwards, who helped create a unit that is fifth in forcing turnovers.
The surprise this season actually comes on the defensive side for Dallas. After ranking 24th in adjusted DRtg last season, they changed the look of their squad by drafting Dereck Lively II and adding Daniel Gafford and PJ Washington at the trade deadline. These additions helped create a rim presence that was severely lacking in past years for the Mavericks and turned them into a championship-caliber defense. Series wins over top-rated offenses in the Clippers and Thunder showed this is a team with a defensive identity. They held those opponents to 101 or less in seven of 12 games.
The shotmaking in this series has been elite, especially on Dallas’s side. At heart though, this is a defensive matchup. We should start to see that more with an under in Game 3 as the intensity picks up.
Pick: Under 207.5 Total Points (-110)
Chris Finch has shown in the postseason that he is plenty capable of making the necessary adjustments to get his team back on track. In the Denver series, they looked left for dead after Game 5. They came out in Game 6 and put on a clinic, winning by a 45-point in a rout of the defending champions. In Game 7 they looked destined for an exit down big in the second half. They then ratcheted up the defense allowing just 32 points over the final 22:50 of game time.
Minnesota’s back is to the wall here yet again. They trail the series 2-0 and likely need to win both of the next two road games in order to advance to their first NBA Finals. They’ll get a better performance than they did in Game 2 out of their stars Anthony Edwards and Karl Anthony Towns. They combined to shoot 9-of-33 and 3-of-12 from deep. Defensively they should get enough to finally close out a game in this series after leading through three quarters in the first two contests.
Pick: Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)