NBA Play-In Tournament Odds & Picks: Wednesday (4/17)
We nailed both Play-In Tournament games yesterday, with the Lakers and Kings adding wins.
Let’s keep that momentum going with the two Eastern Conference Play-In Tournament games tonight.
Wednesday’s Best NBA Bets
Odds courtesy of ESPN BET | All wagers are for 1 unit
Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers
While the Miami Heat defeated the 76ers in two of four games in the regular season, the wins for Miami came earlier in the season. The 76ers won the last two games. However, all four games between these two teams finished with a deficit of no more than seven points.
Lately, the 76ers have ramped up the defense. No team has scored more than 111.9 points per 100 possessions in seven consecutive games. Meanwhile, the offense hasn’t been anywhere close to elite. Philadelphia is good at limiting turnovers and typically gets to the line a lot when Joel Embiid is on the floor. That should help the offense perform at a better rate than they have lately.
On the other hand, the Heat had two successful games against the Raptors to finish the season. But we can’t put too much weight into those games, knowing Toronto isn’t even a top-ten team in the Eastern Conference. That said, the Heat have been much more consistent on the defensive end. They’re not fouling at a high rate and have held four of their last six opponents to an effective field goal percentage of no better than 54.2%.
While I think 5.5 points are a bit much for the 76ers, I feel more comfortable backing both defenses in this game for the 7-seed. Take the Under 207.5 (-105).
Bet: Under 207.5 (-110)
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
The Atlanta Hawks won’t have Jalen Johnson or Onyeka Okongwu due to injuries, which has ultimately hurt the team’s depth this year. The Hawks are coming into this game with a six-game losing streak, and in those six games, they didn’t score better than 116.3 points per 100 possessions.
Even with Trae Young back in the lineup for the Hawks, it’s hard to rely on Atlanta’s offense to stick around against the Bulls. After all, the Hawks just allowed 157 points to the Pacers on Sunday. I don’t care if the game meant nothing to the Hawks. You can’t get embarrassed like that in an NBA game.
That said, the Hawks are usually great on the defensive glass and will have Clint Capela back on the floor. They’re also good at forcing turnovers. But it doesn’t matter if the Hawks can’t score off the turnovers.
On the other hand, the Bulls have scored at least 122.6 points per 100 possessions in three of their last four games. Chicago’s previous two wins came against the Pistons and Wizards, so you must take that with a grain of salt. Still, the Bulls battled the Knicks on Sunday, forcing overtime as a 13.5-point underdog. Chicago lost by one point, but added 18.4% of turnovers and earned 28.3% of offensive rebounds, which is impressive against New York.
Niether team will have much depth off the bench. But I’ll rely on the Bull’s three-headed monster between DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Coby White. Those three will do damage.
Bet: Bulls -3.5 (-105)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: