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NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Pick & Predictions: Monday (Christmas Day)

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Christmas Day features five NBA games, beginning at noon with the New York Knicks hosting the Milwaukee Bucks. How will Tyrese Maxey shoot against the Miami Heat? Will Damian Lillard get out of his two-game slump? Will Steph Curry post a solid Christmas Day performance?

Here are the three best NBA player props for Monday, December 25th.

Best Christmas Day NBA Player Prop Bets

This Season: 19-29 (-10.66 units)

Tyrese Maxey Over 3.5 made three-pointers (+100)

Maxey has made at least four three-pointers in four consecutive games. While he’s averaging just 3.3 makes per game, it’s unlikely that he drops below his average on Christmas against the Miami Heat.

The Heat are allowing their opponents to knock down the 10th-highest percentage of three-pointers in the league. The Heat aren’t great at defending the paint, so perhaps Joel Embiid will score a lot and take away from Maxey’s total. But Maxey has attempted at least six three-pointers in his last 12 games, and he’s averaging 8.9 attempts per game during that span. 

As a 40% shooter from deep, if Maxey attempts eight or nine tonight, he’ll go over this total against a poor three-point shooting defense.

Damian Lillard Over 24.5 points (-125)

This number has already gone up to 25.5 at a few of the major sportsbooks. Lillard scored just 19 points in the Bucks’ win over the Knicks on Saturday. However, he’s scored at least 28 points in each of his other two meetings with the Knicks this season.

Lillard hasn’t shot the ball well in his last two games, posting field goal percentages of less than 40% in each. But Lillard is still shooting 43.4% from the field this season, and he’s 21-of-44 against the Knicks this season.

It’d be nice to get this a little bit lower, considering Lillard’s last two games. Yet, even with the number north of 25 at some of the major sportsbooks, the over is the right play. Our model has him scoring closer to 30 than 25.

Steph Curry Under 4.5 made three-pointers (+100)

Curry has struggled badly on Christmas Day throughout his career. He has scored more than 20 points just once, and he faces a tough matchup with the Denver Nuggets this time around.

When Curry faced the Nuggets earlier this season, he was 6-13 from deep. It’s always tricky to take him to go under his three-pointers total because he averages 11.5 attempts per game. However, the Nuggets are one of the better three-point defenses in the league.

If the Nuggets open up a huge lead in this one, then Curry may start firing away late to hit this over. But the Warriors are hot right now. They’ve won five in a row. They’re going to keep this one close; it just won’t be because of Curry.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:


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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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