NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (1/19)

Welcome to a seven-game NBA Friday slate. I hope to continue a successful season tonight as we head into the weekend. The All-Star break will be here in no time and teams are shaping up with true identities. As always, monitor injury news and shop around for the best odds available. There are a decent number of questionable tags and keeping up to the second on injury news is a great way to stay sharp in the long term as a sports better.

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit.

Friday’s NBA Player Prop Bets Odds & Picks

Last Time: 2-1
Season: 77-54

Jonas Valanciunas Over 21.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-115 via DraftKings)

New Orleans finds itself as a slight favorite with the total sitting around 236. After going over this prop in 11 of his past 15 games, I am backing the Pelicans center again tonight. It simply comes down to trusting the Pels offense over Phoenix's defense. 

I also trust the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet with my life and the sheet projects Valanciunas around 25 for the combo prop with a 71 percent chance of hitting. It's an amazing resource for all your betting needs, beyond just NBA props. I highly recommend trying it out if you haven't already, and trusting it to follow this prop tonight. 


Joel Embiid Under 39.5 Pts + Ast (-113 via FanDuel)

It's always a scary strategy to fade Embiid but after his most recent multi-41-point game performances, his props have inflated like a balloon. It's time to fade the 76ers big man. After averaging 33 points and four assists per game a year ago, those numbers have jumped up to 37 and five assists over the past two weeks. He's due for regression. 

Orlando ranks third in defensive rating on the season. I can't say I'm surprised by what the line is set at but in a pace-down spot, on the road, I am comfortable fading Embiid here. Of course, he will have his moments but don't get caught up in recency bias. The Magic have allowed the fourth fewest points to opposing centers and I'm betting on tonight being a night to fade Embiid.  


LaMelo Ball Over 25.5 points (-110 via DraftKings

Usually, I'm not crazy about betting Ball's over-point total because it's such a popular selection that books can easily inflate the line and still get cash flowing the way. Tonight, this is not the case.

I'm not sure if there is a better spot than the one the Hornets guard finds himself in tonight. The Spurs have allowed an average of 28 points per game to opposing point guards, the most in the NBA, and are 24th in overall defense and are in a big pace-up spot at home. It's not as if either offense is super efficient but both defenses are quite bad. With Brandon Miller and Nick Richards both questionable, Ball's usage will be high either way and I expect him to shine in this one.    


Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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