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NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/4)

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It has been an interesting start to the NBA season, mostly related to the Brooklyn Nets. There has been a lot of early scoring, and there will continue to be lots of value for player props. I'll get right to it. Here are my three favorite player props for Friday, November 4.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

NBA Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday

Jayson Tatum OVER 26.5 points (-105)

Despite ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, Chicago has allowed 108 opponent points per game this season and is still due for some negative regression. Boston not only has the third-best offense in the league, but Chicago offers a pace-up spot for the Celtics.

Tatum has a 30% usage rate, which is 22nd in the NBA. He can score anywhere on the court, and the one-two punch between him and Jaylen Brown will be difficult to stop. He;'s averaged an inflated 30 points per game so far, and while I don't expect it to stay that high all year, I still see him continuing his hot streak right now. 

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet identifies this as the best prop option on the slate night with a 40% expected value with him projected closer to 32 points. I am trusting the algorithm here as the narrative lines up for Tatum to have a solid night.

Karl Anthony-Towns OVER 8.5 rebounds (-110)

With the best defense in the league, per Hollinger's ESPN metrics, Milwaukee will cause a lot of missed shots for the Timberwolves. Minnesota's fourth-highest pace of play will give them plenty of possessions to snag some boards.

Minnesota's 10th-ranked offensive rebounding rate will challenge the Bucks on the glass at both ends of the floor. Especially considering how Minnesota has a top-10 defense to go along with Milwaukee's top-ranked squad. 

Generally speaking, I expect a lot of missed shots and a lot of rebound opportunities here. Karl-Anthony Towns won't be the only player on the court to bring down boards, but I still see him rising above the rest with the best chance of reaching his over-rebound total.

Ayo Dosunmu UNDER 11.5 points (-125)

While I expect Tatum to thrive in this game, I don't see Dosunmu having such luck. The Illinois product has been up and down in scoring production this year, with three performances of 17-or-more points but three single-digit outings.

When Chicago faced Boston for the first time, Dosunmu scored a season-high 22 points. Now that may seem to favor him getting more than 12 points, but with his yo-yo-type outings, I see him regressing hard for the second game. 

There are plenty of solid options tonight with plenty of games to look at. A couple of other props I like include:

  • Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 2.5 rebounds
  • Mike Conley OVER 12.5 points

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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