NBA Playoffs Player Prop Bet Odds & Picks: Thursday (5/16)
With Boston clinching the series last night, the Denver Nuggets have a chance to do the same tonight. They take a 3-2 series lead into Minnesota, while the Timberwolves sit as a slight favorite with a total of around 204.
With only one game tonight, I will provide a pair of player prop bets. Jamal Murray and Mike Conley are both labeled as questionable, but of course, I am writing assuming they are playing. Be sure to shop around for the best-priced props. That’s how to get ahead of the books in the long run.
Here are my best NBA player props for Thursday, May 16.
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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | Season: 145-110
Anthony Edwards Under 36.5 Pts + Ast (-120 via ESPN BET)
It is tempting to bet on the overs with the stars in an elimination game, but this is a clear zag-while-everyone-zigs moment here. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet gives this a 75% chance of this prop hitting. The Sheet continues to be the best tool for all of my betting needs and is the main reason I have done so well with NBA props. Anthony Edwards has only covered this line in six of his last 15 games.
Denver’s defense has been solid these playoffs and considering Edwards’ 44-point performance the last time in Minnesota, I get why this line is so elevated. Still, the home game before, “Ant†only totaled 19 points. He should come back down to his normal scoring ways, as he averaged 26 points all season, with five assists to go with it. Right around 30 is what he’s projected at, so there’s solid value even with juiced -120 odds.
Michael Porter Jr. Over 14.5 Pts + Ast (+100 via DraftKings)
Now, while I’m tempted to fade all the stars, I cannot possibly bet Nikola Jokic’s unders. So, instead, I’ll go for betting on Michael Porter Jr.’s overs. He’s gone over this points and assist combo line in 10 of his last 15 games. Porter Jr. has averaged 16 points and a pair of assists all season. Despite his minutes going up in the playoffs, his scoring has gone down, which I expect to change tonight.
He’s scored 20-plus points twice in the series, so despite single-point scoring efforts, he’s still more than capable of reaching this prop’s over. Even if his scoring is down, he can reach the combo prop through his assists. Minnesota’s defense is solid, but the Nuggets are clearly playing better after understanding their schemes, scoring 110+ points in three straight games. Scoring should be up across the board for the Nuggets here, so I will be riding Porter Jr. tonight.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.