NBA Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (12/20)
Welcome to a three-game Friday NBA slate. After a jam-packed slate yesterday, we're back to a smaller slate before we hit the weekend. It's been a great season, and I hope we continue that trend tonight.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so make sure you're getting the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Friday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 3-3 | Season: 64-43 | Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 22.5 Points + Rebounds (-115)
If you look at recent averages, Isaiah Hartenstein has been scoring 14 points a night with 11 boards but he's scoring less on the season. He's also coming off a tough back-to-back stretch where he had to face one solid defense in Orlando and now continues down the road to face another tough defense in Miami.
The Heat have allowed some of the lowest-scoring outputs to opposing centers, ranking in the bottom 10 at opposing big men scoring. Hartenstein is projected closer to 20 on this combo prop, so despite covering this number more recently, he is due for regression back to his seasonal averages. On the road in consecutive matchups against two top-10-ranked defenses is the perfect spot to find regression.
Evan Mobley Under 16.5 Points (-104)
Riding another under here, I'm going against the Cleveland power forward to reach 17 points in what should be a tough matchup against Milwaukee. After coming off a 21-point outing, this is a bit of an inflated line, even against a team that has allowed the second-fewest points to opposing power forwards and the fewest points to opposing centers.
This is a pace-down spot for the Cavs. Despite ranking as the most efficient offense this year, I expect a lot of the backcourt to take on the bulk of the work. Evan Mobley has been all over the place with scoring, putting up 41 points one game and four points the next, so I'm happy buying the regression game and taking the under. Don't be afraid to bet some alts as Mobley has struggled in previous unfriendly matchups.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 52.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-113)
I guess today's theme is fading big men as I am riding Giannis Antetokounmpo’s under tonight in Cleveland. As near double-digit underdogs, there is a chance this game gets out of hand and Antetokounmpo’s opportunity is cut short. The Cavs’ offense has been awesome this year but their defense is a top-10 unit and has limited opposing centers to the seventh-fewest points scored in the NBA.
Antetokounmpo has been dealing with a right patella tendinopathy, which may limit him. If anything flares up, the Bucks obviously aren't going to push him. He's also due for a little regression and on the road as a big underdog is when I'm jumping in to sell a bit of stock and ride the under.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.