NBA Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Thursday (12/12)
Welcome to a three-game Thursday NBA slate. It's been a great season so far and I hope we continue that trend tonight after some fun NBA Cup games over the past few days.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second best way is to shop around at different books.
Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so make sure you're getting the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-2 | Season: 56-36
Gradey Dick Under 18.5 Points + Assists (-113 Caesars Sportsbook)
It's been an interesting three games back from injury for Gradey Dick with 15, 27 and seven point efforts in his three December games. If you're going to bet his props, I recommend taking some alts, but I'm going to ride the under on this combo prop.
Dick has averaged under 18 points a game already. Not only is that number down since he's been back but his usage and assists are as well with only one in the least three games. The Miami defense has been steadily improving over the season as it sits within the top 10 over their last 10 games, going 7-3.
Dick’s seasonal averages as a whole are higher with 18 points and two assists but big performances skew those. He's only covered the line in six of his last 15 games. The Toronto shooting guard is projected for around 14 points + assists on this combo prop. I'm willing to lay the juice and ride the under.
Keegan Murray Over 11.5 Points (-108 FanDuel Sportsbook)
With Sacramento heading to New Orleans, I'm surprised at how low this number is. The Iowa product has averaged over 12 points a game this season. Despite coming off a seven-point outing on Sunday, this matchup still bodes well for Keegan Murray and the Kings.
The Pelicans have been dealing with a plethora of injuries, so there is a small asterisk here, but they rank in the bottom three in defensive efficiency on the season while still having a near-identical pace of play to Sacramento. They also have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing power forwards this year.
With near-even odds, this feels like quite a value play. Murray should be on the floor for 34+ minutes, so there will be plenty of opportunity for him to find buckets.
Jalen Duren Over 17.5 Points + Rebounds (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
Finally, we're riding the Pistons center over his points and rebounds total tonight against Boston. The Pistons did just face Boston last week with Jalen Duren only tallying five points and boards each, which is exactly why it's a good time to buy low on the Detroit big man.
Duren has averaged nearly a double-double each night across 24 minutes of play on the season. The Pistons’ defense has been decent this year, ranking smack dab in the middle of the pack in efficiency. While Boston continues to be a dominant top-five force offensively, Duren should still get plenty of rebound looks.
Detroit also ranks higher in rebound percentage than Boston. They are also top 10 in offensive board percentage. Additionally, the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet lines this up as one of the better plays in the games with a 76% cover probability.
The cheat sheet is a big reason I have been so successful this year. I highly recommend anyone who hasn't already to check it out and improve your betting across all sports.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.