NBA Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (12/6)

by Ryan Coleman |
Dec 06, 2023

While I may have cooled off a bit as of late, it has still been an incredibly successful season and I plan on continuing that trend tonight. After a measly two-game In-Season Tournament slate yesterday, we are blessed with an early Christmas 11-game masterpiece tonight. Be sure to keep up with who is playing and who is not, because there is bound to be some great value before tip-off.

Unless otherwise specified, each bet will be a single unit.

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Wednesdayâ€™s NBA Best Player Prop Bets

Last Time: 0-2
Season: 42-25

Joel Embiid Over 36.5 Pts + Ast (-120, BetMGM)

Joel Embiid is off the injury report tonight after missing the last two games and I imagine he will be back with a vengeance, especially against the Washington Wizards.

Blindly betting player prop overs against the Wizards has been quite lucrative for me this year and I will follow suit tonight. Overall, Washington ranks 21st in defensive rating while offering a significant pace-up spot for the 76ers. I will say Washington has improved lately, moving up the defensive rankings, but this prop is still set low with Embiid's first game back.

What I love is Washington's overall lack of an interior. They have allowed over 26 points a game to opposing centers, the single-highest number in the league. Embiid has scored over 30 points in each of his last five games and he's averaged 6.6 assists a game. This number should be closer to 40 as I expect Embiid to sail over this combo prop tonight.

Aaron Gordon Over 22.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-125, DraftKings)

I understand you're paying for the juice here at -125, but this might be one of my single favorite prop bets of all season. That's right, a rare two-unit play.

After missing four games with a right heel strain, Gordon game back against Sacramento last week. He contributed 17 points with seven boards and three assists in just 32 minutes, four minutes under what he had been playing in each of his last three games. This line is set assuming Gordon will still be limited, but I don't expect that to be the case after his most recent outing and some extra time off to heal, no pun intended.

With Jamal Murray questionable in Los Angeles, Gordon will be needed and his usage should be higher than normal. The Clippers have leaked points to forwards all season, allowing over 22 points to the position to go with 9.5 boards a game, the single-most for opponent small forwards. The Arizona product can reach this combo prop on points alone, so I love his PAR number even more.

Luguentz Dort Over 10.5 Pts + Ast (-123, Caesars)

For someone already averaging 10-plus points a game this season, I'm confused why this line is set where it is, considering he's had triple assists in each of his last two games.

After winning six games straight, Houston has gone 2-6 since and seriously cooled off, allowing 134 points to Denver and 107 points to the Lakers most recently. Ranking second to last in defensive efficiency, the favored Oklahoma City team will have ample opportunity to score.

I also trust the projections here and the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet sets this line at 14.5. This Cheat Sheet has been a truly remarkable tool for all my betting needs this year and is a big reason why I have been so successful. I'd highly recommend investing in it if you haven't already.

Other Plays:

Kyle Kuzma Under 29.5 Pts + Ast (-105, DraftKings)

Tobias Harris Over 7.5 Reb + Ast (-150, BetMGM)

Bismack Biyombo Over 5.5 Points (-150, BetMGM)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:

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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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