NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/14)
Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with the All-Star break far behind us. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs.
We have a 10-game slate tonight, so we have plenty of options for player props. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Friday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 121-89 | Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Ja Morant Under 23.5 Points (-105)
I'm always hesitant when fading superstars and their props but this is the perfect situation for Ja Morant to go under his scoring prop. No team has ranked higher defensively or allowed fewer points to opposing point guards since the All-Star break than the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Morant has been playing well recently, averaging 30 points a game in his last four matchups, but it was against truly terrible defenses. He is seriously due for some negative regression, closer to the 22 points per game he's averaged this season. Memphis ranks as one of the fastest-paced teams, but the Cavs come in at 17th. The pace-down spot against the best defense in the league is going to be quite a culture shock for Morant. At near even odds I'm more than happy to ride the under.
Dillon Brooks 15+ Points (-115)
The Dallas Mavericks have been in nothing short of a tailspin since the departure of Luka Doncic. In their last 12 games, they rank fifth-worst in defensive efficiency. They’ve been even worse in their last seven games. It seems almost all of their players have gotten hurt. Even Dante Exum and P.J. Washington are questionable tonight.
Houston is favored by double-digits and Dallas is allowing the fourth-most points to the small forward position in the last 15 games and third-most in the last seven. Brooks has covered this line in three straight games. While he won't be able to keep up the 21 points a night he’s been averaging over his last three games, I do expect him to keep up the 14.5 he's been scoring a night over the last two months. It's a little bit of juice but it's against half an NBA team, so I'm OK laying it.
Myles Turner 16+ Points (-120)
I've quickly begun targeting the Philadelphia 76ers when betting opponent props. They are the second-worst defense in the league since the All-Star break and are especially weak down low. Obviously, Joel Embiid is out but Andre Drummond is questionable tonight and I can't exactly say I'm nervous about Guerschon Yabusele.
Philly has allowed the second-most points to opposing centers in the last 15 games. That's especially impressive considering they're a bottom-half-paced team in that same time frame. Myles Turner has been playing the same number of minutes with the same usage and scoring above 16 points a game over his last seven matches. He's been consistently in the double digits. With his minutes and attempts against such a sub-par defense, I'm more than happy to go big with Turner's overs, including his points props.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.