Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with the All-Star break behind us. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs. We have an eight-game slate tonight so we have plenty of options for player props.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Friday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-1 | Season: 116-85 | Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Kevin Durant Over 29.5 Points + Rebounds (-110)
The Denver Nuggets have been winning but it is in little thanks to their defense. Denver ranks 18th in defensive metrics since the All-Star break and 16th on the season. Decent, but nothing to write home about regarding their 40-22 record. Their pace is what stands out - fifth-fastest in the league. The total is 236.5 and what stands out is Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic both being listed as questionable.
The Nuggets have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing small forwards in their last 15 games. While Durant is more of a power forward, Denver will have its hands full with Bol Bol and Nick Richards down low. The boards will come with a high possession rate. With Durant covering this line in four of his last five games, I have perfect confidence in his ability to do it again tonight.
Tyler Herro Under 31.5 Points + Assists (-110)
Minnesota has consistently ranked high in defensive metrics while playing slow. Their pace of play is below average - 25th this year with a top-five defense this season. The total here is only 216. Tyler Herro is reportedly dealing with a head cold and missed the last game. His scoring has stayed consistent with a little dip of 22 points in his last three games and under seven assists.
With 29-30 points and assists a night in recent play, I would expect this line to be lower against a tough opponent in Minnesota. Herro is projected at 27 on this combo prop from the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. A lot of the time when I see that, there is little more to be said for me. The sheet is the reason I have done so well this season. It’s a secret weapon for all your betting needs.
LaMelo Ball Under 23.5 Points (-110)
A team that has leaned on their defense is Cleveland, ranking seventh on the season with their 52-10 record. Their recent play has been deadly to opposing point guards and that's why I'm fading LaMelo Ball even with the lower prop line.
In their last 15 games, the Cavaliers have allowed the fewest points to opposing point guards and it's by a country mile. Ball has covered this line in eight of his last 15 games. Given the near 50% success rate, I'm surprised at the line against a team that has done such an effective job at limiting guards.
Charlotte's riding a seven-game losing streak while Cleveland has won 12 straight. The Cavs are a 17-point favorite, so I'm comfortable finding any under to bet for Charlotte.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.
