NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (1/23)
We are in the dog days of summer (winter, but you get it) with the NFL season winding down and the NBA garnering more viewership. If you're just joining us for the first time, welcome, it's been a great season. I hope we continue that trend tonight after I've been as cold as the weather in the last week or so.
We have an eight-game slate tonight (nine if you include the matinee Global Game in Paris between the Spurs and Pacers), which means plenty of props. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements.
The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you're getting the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
Go premium to view top prop bets based on Cover Probability, Expected Value & Star Rating >>
Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 0-2 | Season: 83-66
Myles Turner Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Myles Turner has covered this line in four out of his last five games, and I don't see why he can't do it on Thursday. Playing in Paris, the Pacers are favored by two points with a decent total. In his last five games, he's been playing 30 minutes a game, but his usage has been bumped compared to his seasonal averages.
The Spurs are second in the league in points allowed to opposing centers. With almost 15 boards allowed by San Antonio to centers, Turner is in line to go above this line after averaging nearly 18 points a night with seven boards in his last five games.
While that's due to regression, he is still averaging almost 16 points with seven boards a night, so he's well in line in this beneficial outing to go over his combo prop.
Gradey Dick Over 13.5 Points (-117 at Caesars Sportsbook)
With Atlanta coming off a back-and-back and Trae Young and Jalen Johnson questionable, Toronto is especially lined up to have a solid night. The Hawks have a sub-par defense, but more importantly, the Hawks run at the second-fastest pace of play in the league. The Raptors are also a top half of the league team in pace of play.
The Hawks allow the third-most points to opposing shooting guards. Gradey Dick has averaged 16 points a night, so I'm surprised the number isn't higher in such a matchup. Dick has better scoring numbers on the road, with nearly 17 a night, so putting his number three-to-four points lower than that in a pace-up spot against a lower-half-ranked defense provides quite the value.
Wendell Carter Jr. Under 16.5 Points + Assists (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
With Orlando slowly putting the squad back together, I don't expect Wendell Carter Jr. to get to 17 points and assists. Portland is dealing with some injuries, but the Duke product's minutes should see a decline closer to his 25-minute-per-game average. At that point, he's averaged 15 points and assists a game, which is with injuries to the lineup.
Carter is projected for 13 points + assists, according to the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, which is also why I'm so happy with the selection. The cheat sheet is one of the best tools in the betting industry, so I'd recommend checking it out to help with all your betting needs. The Magic big man has only covered the line in two of his last five games. I don't expect him to clear it tonight either.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.