Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with the All-Star break behind us. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs.
We have a nine-game slate tonight, so it's good to jump back into it. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 101-78
Trae Young Under 28.5 Points (-120 at BetRivers)
With teams returning after a hiatus, you'd expect players to be rested and ready for full go. Well, for Orlando, I will trust their defense more at full go and chalk Atlanta's offense as an expected "gotta shake the rust off" deal instead.
Orlando is entering today's game with the third-best defense in the league, and they haven't been near full health most of the season. Even with Atlanta as the second-fastest-paced team in the league, this game total is only at 222. That's because Orlando is the closest thing you can get to the most considerable pace-down spot in the league as the second-slowest team in the NBA.
While Trae Young has averaged 29 points over his last nine outings, that number is due to negative regression. I can't believe the number is currently where it's at. You may find it juiced but I imagine it will continue falling as we get closer to tip-off time, so jump on it as I project the Hawks guard closer to 25 points tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 41.5 Points + Rebounds (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
As someone who actively tries to root for the Chicago Bulls, I want to give a disclaimer that this pick may come with a little bit of spite. Chicago has been the third-fastest-paced team this year and their defense has consistently ranked in the bottom of the league, sitting at 27th this season and 28th in the last 10 games. They allow the second most points a game to opposing centers and even more points a night over their recent play.
At home as a 12.5-point favorite with a 242 total, I need to find some way to find player prop overs for the Knicks tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is coming off two 40+ point scoring efforts, which, of course, is not sustainable, but his rebounding has also been down of late. The Bulls are also a bottom-seven rebounding unit, so even if his scoring regresses, he should get back to his 13-14 boards a night and cover this line without much trouble.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 29.5 Points + Assists+ Rebounds (-115 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Memphis has been a bit of a difficult team to bet against as they are the fastest-paced team in the league but own a top-seven league defense across the entire year. But if you look at recent play, the numbers tell a different story.
Over the last 10 games, the Grizzlies are still the second-fastest-paced team but have the 18th-ranked defense. While they haven't allowed the highest scoring numbers to opposing point guards, they do allow a higher average number of assists and rebounds. The biggest thing here is the significant split difference for the Iowa State product at home versus on the road. Tyrese Haliburton scores a lot more, ups his rebounds and his assists almost give him a double-double at home this year. The total is 250 and Haliburton has been consistent throughout the year. Give me the over here.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.
