NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/27)
Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with teams jockeying for playoff position or better draft status with around 10 games remaining. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs. We have an eight-game slate tonight, so we should have a solid handful of props available.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 2-0 | Season: 129-91
Donovan Mitchell Over 30.5 Points + Rebounds (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Spurs have fallen off a cliff defensively since the All-Star break, ranking second to last in league defense over their last 19 games. They rank 25th on the season, so it's not like they did much better earlier this year, but it's even worse.
The Spurs are also the fifth-worst rebounding team in the league. I expect Cleveland to get a lot of rebounding opportunities with a high-paced game and a solid Cavs defense. Donovan Mitchell is off the injury report and should be good to go. Still, this prop line seems a bit low. There are only a few teams I feel more comfortable betting opponent props against than the Spurs right now, so I'm happy riding Mitchell over his combined points and rebound prop tonight without much juice.
Shai Gilegeous-Alexander Under 46.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-120 at bet365)
Here we go. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is easily my favorite NBA player in the league right now. I don't think I've bet any unders on Gilgeous-Alexander this year. I especially haven't bet any of his unders against a sub-par defense that plays at one of the fastest rates in the league. Since the All-Star break, Memphis ranks fourth in pace of play and 19th defensively.
That's great for overs, especially with Oklahoma City playing at home. The thing is, the line is just too overinflated. Gilgeous-Alexander has covered this line in just 29% of games this season. Sportsbooks are tempting bettors to go with the over at this set line. If you can't bet this, I understand. It may not be a bad idea to bet some alt overs because there is a chance Gilgeous-Alexander goes nuclear. But I'm riding the under here and am comfortable being burned.
Domantas Sabonis Over 21.5 Points + Assists (-112 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Portland is a fine defensive opponent. This bet is more about Domantas Sabonis experiencing positive regression after returning from injury. In his last two games, he's only managed 12 points and four assists - not great. But he faced two incredible defenses in Boston and Oklahoma City. He saw the floor for over 32 minutes in each game, getting to 38 last time out on Tuesday.
That's promising for some bounceback potential. The Trail Blazers are a top-half-paced team and have allowed the seventh-most points to opposing centers over their last 15 games. Don't think too much about this one.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.