NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/6)
Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with the All-Star break behind us. If you're just joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs. We have a six-game slate tonight so we have plenty of options for player props.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. Last night, two of my plays ended up being ruled out, but you can still use the data and concepts to bet on other players. The second-best way to stay sharp is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-0 | Season: 114-84
Coby White Under 25.5 Points + Rebounds (-121 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Sometimes you keep it simple and trust the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet. The sheet projects Coby White closer to 20 on this combo prop, which means excellent value on this juiced line for the Bulls on the road. Chicago goes up against the second-best defense in the league and the Magic have limited opposing shooting guards and small forwards to the lowest scoring numbers on the season.
Whoever guards White should do a solid job. In the last seven games, White's usage has dropped a few percentage points despite some additional minutes. He's only covered this line in 36% of games this season. While the roster is a lot different now, playing against the second-slowest team in the league limits opportunities for the UNC product to get to 26 on the combo prop.
Amen Thompson Over 16.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Pelicans have been at the bottom of the league all season in most metrics, and defense is one of them. Only the Utah Jazz have worse metrics defensively on the season. Even if you look at just a recent 10-game sample size, where they are healthier and playing better, the Pelicans still rank as a bottom-10 defensive unit.
Pace is where they rank highest - 13th. They will bring up the possession rate for Amen Thompson and Co. In his last six games, Thompson has been playing 37 minutes a night and averaging 15 points a game. In a pace-up spot against one of the worst defensive units in the league in a pace-up, I'm more than happy to buy an extra bucket for someone who is going to see ample playing time and attempts.
Trae Young Under 26.5 Points (-117 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
I hate to say it, but despite a 246 total 246, I'm zagging a bit and riding the under on this over-inflated Trae Young line. He hasn't scored 27 points in four of his last five games and was far from it in each. Indiana has a reputation for fast play and poor defense, but the numbers tell a different story recently.
Since the All-Star break, the Pacers have the ninth-best defense with a 19th-ranked pace of play. Everyone is bound to bet the over here, which makes me feel better about the value offered considering Young has averaged fewer than 24 points a night this year. He has only hit this line in 40% of his games.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.