NBA Player Props Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (11/17)

by Ryan Coleman |
Nov 17, 2023

It's been an immaculately successful season so far and I have been ridiculously hot of late, going 10-0 in my last 10 plays. I cannot expect this kind of success to continue but I hope you have all tailed so far.

This time of year books become sharper with more and more games being played and it gets a bit more difficult to find value but don't worry, it's still out there. There are a whole bunch of questionable tags tonight so take what I say with a grain of salt. Be sure to keep up with who is playing and who is not because there is bound to be some great value available right before tip-off.

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Fridayâ€™s NBA Best Player Prop Bets

All bets are one unit unless specified otherwise | Last Time: 2-0 & Season: 32-11

Domantas Sabonis Over 18.5 points (-115 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Sabonis has been on an absolute tear of late and I truly don't understand how this point total sits so low given his recent play and the matchup.

On the season as a whole, the Sacramento Kingsâ€™ big man has averaged 19 points a game. In the past week, that number jumped to 23 after a 29-point effort in Los Angeles. With Victor Wembanyama down low, the San Antonio Spurs have allowed an average of 22.7 points per game to opposing centers. Making sure everyone is on the same page, all those numbers are comfortably above 18.5 points.

The Spurs don't only have the worst defensive rating in the league, but they also rank second in the league in pace of play. There will be a big possession boost for the Kings and Sabonis has been playing the minutes, so will have the shot volume where it should be easy for him to get to 18.5 points. If you want to take alternative points, I fully support that and this will be my first two-unit play of the season.

Jalen Brunson Over 34.5 Pts + Ast + Reb (-115 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

If you love taking over props in the NBA, just identify whoever the Washington Wizards are playing and throw a dart at any opponent Overs. That's not what I did here, I promise, but New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson jumps off the page for me.

What is most appealing to this prop is how Quentin Grimes and R.J. Barrett are both questionable for tonight. Brunson obviously will have a big jump if either of those players is out or limited and I feel like this line doesn't reflect that.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects this combo prop at 40. The sheet is a remarkable tool to use for any of your betting needs and is a big reason why I have been so successful. The Wizards are like Swiss cheese sometimes so I'm happy to jump on the Brunson overs.

Clint Capela Over 8.5 rebounds (-105 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

This may be a little surprising but Philadelphia only ranks 19th in rebound rate this year despite allowing the fourth-lowest rebounds per game to opposing centers.

Still, Capela averages 9.6 boards a game, a number that is due for positive regression after he snagged 11 per game a year ago. The Atlanta Hawksâ€™ defense may not be all that but this number should be higher, and the opportunity will be there.

The elephant in the room is that Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight with left hip soreness. Of course, if he is out, this is an absolute smash play. Even if he is in, I still think this prop is worth taking as Capela is projected at 10.4 rebounds and has gone over 8.5 boards in seven of his 11 games played this year.

Other Props:

Skylar Mays Under 1.5 3pts (-175, DraftKings)

Paul George Over 2.5 assists (-160, DraftKings)

Harrison Barnes Over 1.5 assists (+146, Caesars)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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