NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Friday (3/28)
Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with teams jockeying for playoff position or better draft status with around 10 games remaining. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs. We have an eight-game slate tonight, so we should have a solid handful of props available.
As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Friday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 3-0 | Season: 132-91
OG Anunoby Under 22.5 Points + Assists (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
You know what they say, the best time to bet an NBA player to go under 22.5 points and assists is after four straight games scoring 23+ points. It's my favorite adage. While OG Anunoby's recent play has been impressive, it isn't sustainable. Three of those four games were against some of the worst defenses in the league. Now he's on the road in a 220 total environment against the Bucks.
Milwaukee has been a top-10 defensive unit this season and ranks fifth-best since the All-Star break. Both teams have bottom-10 possession rates over their last 10 games, and there isn't a player out there more than the New York forward who is due for more regression. Anunoby averages 17 points a game this season - he won't be able to keep up his nearly 28 points per game average over this four-game stretch, and I expect that to start on the road tonight.
Kevin Durant Under 36.5 Points + Assists + Rebounds (-118 on FanDuel Sportsbook)
It feels a little odd fading the Phoenix Suns’ offense, which has been a bright spot for them, and Kevin Durant to go with it, but I expect Minnesota's defense to be up to the challenge. They're the fifth-best defensive squad over the last 15 games and have allowed the fourth-fewest combined points + assists + rebounds to opposing power forwards this season.
Durant is another player due for some major regression, averaging nearly 37 points over his last three games despite failing to average 27 on the season. On the road against this Minnesota frontcourt, I don't expect him to continue his insane scoring ways. He should revert to his averages.
Brandin Podziemski Over 17.5 Points + Assists (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
I couldn't leave you with all unders now, could I? Someone whom I don't expect regression for quite yet is the Warriors’ shooting guard. Brandon Podziemski is averaging 16 points a game in his last four affairs. While his seasonal average is over 10 a night, I expect his current run to be a bit more sustainable.
One, he's starting and playing starters’ minutes. He's managed 33 minutes a night in those four games. With Gary Payton II ruled out, I don't expect that to change. He's also facing the New Orleans Pelicans, the exact team to target opponent overs for. They officially have the league’s worst defense while still ranking in the top half of the league in pace of play. I'm going to keep betting Podziemski overs until proven wrong.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.