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NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Thursday (10/24)

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The NBA is back. Storylines abound throughout the league, including what the re-vamped New York Knicks will look like. Does Victor Wembanyama have a ceiling for his sophomore season? What teams will surprise and flop? It's all up in the air during the best time of year with the NBA, NHL, NFL and MLB all going on at the same time. I'll be coming to you on Wednesdays, Thursdays and Fridays with my best NBA player props. Last year I finished 156-120, so I hope to run back another winning season. 

As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second best way is to shop around at different books. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you're getting the best value. What a time to be alive. It was an amazing start to the season, so let's get to it and find some more winners.

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit. 

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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Last Time: 6-0 | Season: 6-0

Jayson Tatum Over 28.5 Points (-115 on ESPN Bet)

With an unbelievable season opener against the New York Knicks, going 8-11 from beyond the arc, I'm riding Jayson Tatum's hot hand until proven otherwise. I understand the insane efficiency Tatum shot with a 77.8% field goal percentage rate the Knicks on Tuesday but he did so across just 30 minutes of play. Last year he averaged closer to 36 and the Celtics have the nuts matchup tonight. If you followed me last year, you knew a large part of my strategy was to pick a player opposing the Washington Wizards and find an over.

The Wizards allowed the most points to opposing forwards last year and should be the fastest or one of the fastest-paced teams again this year. If you want, you can go with Al Horford's overs as the books didn't seem to adjust his props as much as the other big-name Celtics players. Tatum seems to have a chip on his shoulder with the offseason narrative around how he has a negative aura and was carried on Team USA in the Olympics. I expect Tatum's usage to continue rising and his shot attempts to stay high. Against what should be the worst defense in the league, I'm all over his overs. Feel free to bet some alts if you feel risky. 

Naz Reid Under 12.5 Points (-120 on ESPN Bet)

After starting the season with 12 points across 26 minutes in the season opener in Los Angeles, Naz Reid has his line set right back at 12 points tonight in Sacramento. Julius Randle didn't fit right with his new team, struggling in his first game with the Timberwolves. In the early season, I expect Randle to continue to find his footing and get some increased usage. As that happens, Rudy Gobert should be leaned on a bit more.

I also feel comfortable taking the under here because Sacramento was the stingiest team against opposing centers last year, allowing the fewest points to opposing big men across the entire league. Domantas Sabonis is nasty down low, so even if Reid gets extended minutes for any reason, he should struggle to score here. Both teams were slower-paced in the second half of last year and we saw Reid's scoring dip on the road last year. It's a bit juiced but I'm more than happy with this bet. 

Christian Braun Under 13.5 Points + Rebounds (-113 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

After averaging 20 minutes a game last year as a role player, Christian Braun will be thrust into the starting rotation this year. But given the rest of the team and the matchup against Alex Caruso and Oklahoma City, I don't expect him to get many looks or much usage to kick off the season.

Considering he's expected to go up against Caruso on the other side and a team that ranked fourth overall in defensive rating in the second half of the year, I see some growing pains if Denver leans on Braun more to start the year. Even if they don’t I'm not concerned about him reaching this line anyway. Until proven otherwise, I'm happy riding the under for those facing the Thunder across the board, my NBA champion selection. 

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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