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NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Thursday (11/30)

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I hope everyone had a solid Thanksgiving week and that I can now provide some early gifts as we enter the holiday season.

This time of year, books become sharper with more and more games being played, and it gets a bit more difficult to find value. But don't worry, it's still out there. We have a solid nine-game slate with plenty of opportunity to make some money.

Be sure to keep up with who is playing and who is not because there is bound to be some great value available right before tip-off.

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Thursday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit | Last Time: 1-1 | Season: 41-21

Spencer Dinwiddie Under 12.5 Reb + Ast (+100 via PointsBet)

After averaging four boards and just over six assists this season, Spencer Dinwiddie's combo prop at 12.5 is simply overinflated. In the last week, those averages have been up, hence the prop set where it is. Still, it's due for regression, and I'll be taking the under.

When facing Charlotte early in the year, Dinwiddie combined for just four assists and rebounds. It was a season-low in minutes played, but you get my point. The Hornets’ defense is 20th in the league, and playing at home should lead to a more efficient Nets offense, which already ranks 12th.

The reduction in rebound opportunities, and considering his projected sub-7.0 assists, is why I love this combo prop for my first bet of the evening.

Deandre Ayton Over 13.5 Points (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Despite this point total sitting at 218.5 tonight, the point prop set for Deandre Ayton is too low tonight as Portland takes on Cleveland. Of course, you have to account for Cleveland owning the most efficient defense in the league and the slowest single pace, which is why it's a smart play to bet overs.

The books understand that scoring will be at a premium, which is why they set lines to tempt you into the under. However, Ayton has performed well of late and in a sustainable manner. He's scored 14-plus points in each of his last three games and four of his last five. 

I'd project him closer to 16 points tonight, especially considering he's performed at a high level on the road. While Cleveland's defense is elite, their frontcourt leaves much to be desired, allowing over 22 points a game to opposing centers, more than average in the NBA. I don't expect over 20 points but I do expect 14.

Tyrese Haliburton Under 25.5 Points (-120 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

I understand that this line is juiced, but it is still a good value with a 75% chance of hitting, according to the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet, an ideal tool for your betting needs.

After averaging 20 points a game last year and just over 25 points a game this season, this points prop is inflated, likely because of his recent play of 30-plus points in three of the last four games. That number will come down. Miami's top-10 defense and slow offensive pace provide the perfect spot to fade Haliburton.

Miami has allowed the eighth-fewest points to opposing point guards, and playing on the road should cap Tyrese Hailburton's scoring to 25 or less.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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