NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (3/20)
Welcome to another day of basketball as we are deep into the NBA season with teams jockeying for playoff position or better draft status. If you're joining us for the first time, welcome. It's been a great year, and I hope we continue that trend as we look to the playoffs.
We have a five-game slate tonight while the NCAA Tournament kicks off, so we have plenty of options for player props as the sportsbooks are distracted making lines for 16 seeds you've never heard of. As always, monitor injury news and lineup announcements. The best way to stay sharp regarding NBA player props is by staying on top of the news. The second-best way is to shop around at different sportsbooks. Player props rarely have identical odds across platforms, so ensure you get the best value. Let's get to it.
Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be for a single unit.
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Thursday's Best NBA Player Prop Bets
Last Time: 1-2 | Season: 122-91
Damian Lillard Over 28.5 Points + Assists (-122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
A lot of the time I'll keep it simple and trust the information laid out to me. But a lot of the time, sportsbooks will overcompensate on a given line and it's best to zag while everyone else zigs. This is one of those times. The Lakers’ defense has been excellent since the All-Star break. Call it regression, call it a good matchup, call it trusting Damian Lillard, but it can't hold at such a high clip forever.
Lillard has covered this line in nearly two-thirds of his games this year. With his usage rate at 25% and his minutes consistent at around 35 a night, I expect him to go over this line again tonight. It doesn't appear Lillard's injury/groin soreness will be a limiting factor and he is due for some positive regression on the scoring front where I feel comfortable buying stock in the Bucks guard now.
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 26.5 Points (-102 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Once again, we have an over-inflated line that is near even odds and offers great value. Karl-Anthony Towns has covered this line in just 36% of games all year. Despite Charlotte's defensive woes, they've allowed centers to score at a bottom-10 rate in their last 15 games. That's a pretty decent number.
Towns is coming off a 32-point outing, so there's a reason why his scoring prop got a bit of a boost, but he's averaged fewer than 23 points over the last two months of play. Charlotte is still a slower-paced team, so it's not as if Towns will get much of a possession bump. There is nothing really that stands out to take his over other than a sub-par defense. This is also the second game of a road back-to-back for the Knicks. I'm happy fading New York's offense across the board here.
Jakob Poeltl Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-115 at bet365)
I can't go all unders now, can I? After resting last game, Jakob Poeltl is off the injury report and back in action. He’s covered this line in four of his last five games played. The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet tags this as one of the best plays of the last, and I trust the Sheet with my life. It provides all the data you need for all your gambling desires and is a big reason why I have been so successful this season.
Despite their improved defense, the Warriors have still allowed the ninth-most points and assists to opposing big men over their last seven games. I see that continuing tonight. The line seems a little lower due to expectations of injury but there is no reason to believe Poeltl isn't 100% (monitor injury news), so I expect this line to creep up as the game gets closer to tip.
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.