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NBA Player Props Bet Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (11/29)

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I hope everyone had a solid Thanksgiving week and that now I can provide some early gifts entering the holiday season.

This time of year, books become sharper with more and more games being played, and it gets a bit more difficult to find value. But don’t worry, it’s still out there. We have a solid seven-game slate with plenty of opportunity to make some money.

Be sure to keep up with who is playing and who is not because there is bound to be some great value available right before tip-off.

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Wednesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets

Unless specified otherwise, each bet will be a single unit | Last Time: 2-4 | Season: 40-20

Joel Embiid Under 6.5 Assists (-130 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

In all honesty, it’s a little scary to bet this prop considering how well Embiid has been playing of late. Still, he is due for some major regression in the assist category, and I’m deciding now is a good time to jump on the under in that market.

The 76ers’ big man has averaged just around 6.5 assists per game, but that number has jumped drastically after dishing 10 assists a game in the last week. Historically, that number has never gone above 4.5 in the previous three seasons. It will come back down.

The Pelicans own the sixth-best defensive unit in the league and don’t exactly push the pace. I’m not sure when Embidd will come back to earth, but this prop is overinflated right now, so I would advise jumping in on the under. 

Keyonte George Under 15.5 Points (-110 via BetMGM)

One thing Memphis has done well this season is play defense. With the third-most efficient unit, Keyonte George will have his work cut out for him tonight. The Baylor product has scored 16-plus points in two of his last three games after failing to reach that benchmark in any of his previous games. His scoring total will come down.

The Grizzlies are a top-10 unit in limiting opposing guard scoring, and with the limited data we have, George performs better at home. I’m surprised to see this line sit at where it is and expected more of a 14 or 13-point prop. This is some major value. While George’s scoring has risen, he’s been more efficient, so even if the attempts stay the same, statistically speaking, his scoring shouldn’t stay at the 16-point mark.  

Desmond Bane Under 5.5 Assists (-104 via Caesars Sportsbook)

I figured to follow the under-trend in this game because I expect scoring to be down between Utah and Memphis. I’ll invest in that by taking Desmond Bane’s under on the assists.

The BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet projects Bane to be around 4.5 assists with a 70% chance of this prop hitting the under. The Sheet has been an immaculate tool and is a big reason I’m 40-20 on the year. I’d highly recommend checking it out for all your betting needs.

Utah ranks fifth in the league at limiting opposing guards’ assists, with shooting guards sitting right at 4.5 assists per game on the year.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @ryancoleman_98. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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